The Impact of 2-Dose Routine Measles, Mumps, Rubella, and Varicella Vaccination in France on the Epidemiology of Varicella and Zoster Using a Dynamic Model With an Empirical Contact Matrix

Abstract

In conclusion, the model predicted that MMRV vaccination can significantly reduce varicella incidence. With suboptimal coverage, a limited age shift of varicella cases is predicted to occur post-vaccination with MMRV. However, it does not result in an increase in the number of complications. GSK study identifier: HO-12-6924.

Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Varicella Vaccination Using the Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Varicella Vaccine in France: An Economic Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model for Varicella and Herpes Zoster

“…This model differs from previous models because it uses empirically derived contacts rather than hypothetical ones (see Ouwens et al 18 ). The presence and impact of exogenous natural immunity boosting are much debated in the literature, with no conclusive evidence available.…”

“…As routine MMR vaccination with a high coverage has been shown 26 to induce a herd protection effect, routine infant vaccination had an impact on the incidence of varicella in all age groups. Detailed epidemiologic results of the model were presented by Ouwens et al 18 In the rapid replacement scenario, the number of varicella cases is expected to decline at a faster rate compared with that in the base-case analysis. In the extended dosing interval scenario, the number of varicella cases is expected to be higher than the French current coverage but is comparable to the Optimal coverage.…”

Modeling the transmission dynamics of varicella in Hungary

“…In Hungary, monthly reporting of varicella cases to the public health authorities is obligatory. Unfortunately, the varicella incidence appears to be much higher than reported, since the annual birth number is about 2.5-times higher than the reported varicella cases; and according to serological studies, these two values should be nearly equal [11]. Among others, the main reason is that not every child is taken to the pediatrician, as there is no effective medical treatment.…”

“…Although there is no clear picture concerning the degree of the boosting effect, the existence of the exogenous boosting seems to be valid [8]. Assuming exogenous boosting, it is reasonable that after introducing vaccination, the number of varicella cases decreases and consequently the zoster incidence temporarily increases [1,11].…”

“…There are many country-specific studies regarding the effects and cost-effectiveness of the introduction of varicella vaccination, e.g. [1,3,4,11]. However, there are hardly any stud-ies about Hungary ( [10] is a retrospective, descriptive study), where the introduction of varicella vaccination into the routine childhood vaccination program is being introduced.…”