2005
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.700064
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The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth

Abstract: This paper examines the channels through which ageing will shape the main economic factors that in turn affect potential growth; identifies current policy settings that may in fact amplify the adverse impact of demographic trends; and sets out policy reforms that will work to temper the effects of ageing on growth. The paper begins with a brief discussion of demographic issues. The analysis first focuses on the impact of these trends on the future level and structure of consumption, which may affect aggregate … Show more

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Cited by 38 publications
(28 citation statements)
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“…The weight we assigned to each age is proportional to its frequency in the age distribution but one may consider other weights including economic, health or productivity considerations. Hence, our approach could be applied to the study of medical spendings as in Cutler and Sheiner (2001), dependency ratios as in Oliveira Martins et al (2005) and the labor force as in Shoven (2010). It could also be used to evaluate the importance of forecasted population trends in terms of aging and be extended to incorporate disability status as in Scherbov (2005, 2007).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The weight we assigned to each age is proportional to its frequency in the age distribution but one may consider other weights including economic, health or productivity considerations. Hence, our approach could be applied to the study of medical spendings as in Cutler and Sheiner (2001), dependency ratios as in Oliveira Martins et al (2005) and the labor force as in Shoven (2010). It could also be used to evaluate the importance of forecasted population trends in terms of aging and be extended to incorporate disability status as in Scherbov (2005, 2007).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In particular, both the decline in the size of the population and their different participation rates will adversely affect the labour force ( Figure 6). Some simulations of the total impact of ageing on growth (including the direct effect on labour supply and the more indirect effects on productivity and domestic demand) show that ageing may reduce GDP per capita growth by -0.4% per year between -20 and -0.8% between 2021and 2030(Oliveira Martins et al, 2005. 6.…”
Section: Long-term Challenges Remainmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…More precisely, the baseline trajectory is based on the hypothesis that (i) the United States remain the world productivity leader and their mean labour productivity follows a steady growth of 1.65% per year, (ii) other countries productivity dynamics are driven by a partial catch-up of productivity gaps, the parameters of which are calibrated on historic trajectories (Maddison, 1995) and 'best guess' of long-term trends (Oliveira-Martins et al, 2005). For policy scenarios, two different specifications were tested in order to focus on endogenous technical change (Crassous et al, 2006): labour productivity was either exogenous or dependent on cumulated regional investment.…”
Section: Growth Driversmentioning
confidence: 99%