The impact of Arctic and North Atlantic oscillation on temperature and precipitation anomalies in Serbia

Abstract

The impact of the Arctic Oscillations (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) is considered as the most prominent of atmospheric oscillations in the area of the northern hemisphere from the United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic.The aim of this study was to determine how these fluctuations affect the temperature and precipitation in Serbia.This paper explores the impact for the period of 50 years (1958-2007) by months and in 20 synoptic stations.The influence of the AO on temperature anomalies in Serbia can be seen by the correlation coefficient, the largest in the month of January, while its impact on precipitation is the largest in the month of February.After the test of linear correlation between the NAO index and temperature anomalies for the base period 1971-2000 for 20 synoptic stations in Serbia, it has been found that the highest correlation is in the month of January.The correlation between the NAO and the precipitation anomalies for the stations mentioned above is the highest in the month of February.Spatial patterns of the AO and the NAO influence on temperature in January and on precipitation in February were obtained by applying principal component analysis.

Analysis of air temperature trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina

“…The NAO influence on the temperature during winter months as well as during September was also demonstrated by previous studies for other areas in this part of Europe (e.g. Serbia) (Pavlović Berdon, 2012).The weak and insignificant positive correlation between NAOI and temperatures in Bosnia and Herzegovina was also found in spring.…”

Spatial pattern of North Atlantic Oscillation impact on rainfall in Serbia

“…The stronger NAO the lower precipitation in general over Serbia while weaker NAO means larger precipitation in the area as a whole. Our results fit with the observations of previous studies on relationship between NAO and winter rainfall in Serbia, where authors (Jovanović et al, 2008;Pavlović-Berdon, 2012) pointed out February as a month with highest correlations. This is the reason why some papers are mainly focused only on winter part of the year (Ferrari et al, 2013) and sometimes including March (Trigo et al, 2002).…”

“…However, they noticed slight tendencies toward drier conditions on a seasonal scale during winter and spring, and wetter conditions during autumn. The winter rainfall decrease in Serbia may be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation as has been suggested in previous studies (Pavlović-Berdon, 2012).…”

“…They observed NAO impact on stations with a continental precipitation regime, and ENSO on those with a Mediterranean one. A more detailed study was performed by Pavlović-Berdon (2012). She explored the impact of NAO on rainfall in Serbia between 1958 and 2007 on a monthly scale using 20 synoptic stations.…”

Assessing average annual air temperature trends using the Mann–Kendall test in Kosovo

“…2006;Đorđević 2008;Unkašević and Tošić 2009b;Gavrilov etal. 2010;Pavlović Berdon 2012;Hrnjak etal. 2014;Tošić et al 2014;Gavrilov et al 2015;2016).…”