The Impact of Changes in Crude Oil price on the Yield and Volatility of Manufacturing: Evidence from the US and China

Abstract

This study is based on the data of WTI international futures crude oil price, China manufacturing Index and the United States Dow Jones Manufacturing Index from November 23, 2021 to June 16, 2022. This paper uses VAR and ARMA-GARCH models to analyze the changes in yield and volatility of manufacturing in the US and China. The results show that the change of crude oil price under the situation of Russia-Ukraine conflict has a negative effect on the return rate of manufacturing industry in China and the United States, but the impact on the return rate of manufacturing industry in China is greater than that of Dow Jones, and the impact on the return rate of manufacturing industry in the United States will gradually disappear as time goes by. In order to reduce the adverse impact of oil price fluctuations on manufacturing industry, this study puts forward some suggestions, such as adopting diversified ways of oil import and export trade and actively developing and utilizing other energy sources.