The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Biewald, Anne; Pehl, Michaja; Bonsch, Markus; Baumstark, Lavinia; Klein, David; Popp, Alexander; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2016.06.007

Cited by 82 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…As a result, comparisons to other SSP studies of global water demands are difficult, although some sector‐by‐sector comparisons can be made (cf. Alcamo et al, ; Bijl et al, ; Fujimori et al, ; Hanasaki et al, , ; Hejazi et al, , ; Mouratiadou et al, ; Shiklomanov, ; Shen et al, ; Wada et al, ). Agricultural sector withdrawals are on the lower side of existing projections (Figure S1).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous SSP studies have implemented changes in agricultural water demands through efficiency changes and crop yield improvements. Mouratiadou et al (2016) addressed crop yield improvements, but these were only applied to bioenergy. Wada et al (2016) held irrigation efficiency constant at base year values for the three SSP scenarios they analyzed, while Hanasaki et al (2013a) assumed maximum irrigation efficiency of 100%.…”

Section: Water Technology Assumptions For the Agricultural Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the introduction of the SSPs, several studies have assessed such assumptions (cf. Bijl et al, 2016;Fujimori et al, 2016;Hanasaki et al, 2013aHanasaki et al, , 2013bMouratiadou et al, 2016;Wada et al, 2016). However, these studies have largely focused on individual sectors, predate the introduction of the SSP scenarios to the IAM community, and/or lack the ability to endogenously calculate water demands based upon cost and availability of water supplies.…”

Section: Water Resources Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Graham

Davies

Hejazi

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; therefore, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This study has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs and then applied the resulting scenarios to an integrated assessment model to permit analysis of future water demand in a water‐constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water‐efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario‐by‐scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3,560 to 6,600 km3. The results show that (1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios, (2) the most sustainable scenario produces end‐of‐century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values, (3) low‐income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly‐efficient water technologies, and (4) nonwater sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Water Technology Assumptions For the Agricultural Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Water Resources Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Graham

Davies

Hejazi

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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“…An example is the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework, which has been coupled with a water resource system component (Strzepek et al, ) and used to assess effects of alternative climate change and mitigation policies on water stress (Blanc et al, ; Schlosser et al, ; Strzepek et al, ). Another example is the LPJml‐MAgPIE‐REMIND framework, which has been used to assess water demands under alternative socioeconomic and policy pathways (Mouratiadou et al, ). For the problem of exploring the sensitivity of global groundwater depletion to exploitability assumptions, one ideally needs an model that passes the costs of water extraction onto end users that are able to reduce their withdrawals through technology adoption (e.g., water efficiency improvements), development of unconventional supply sources (e.g., desalinated water), abandonment of unprofitable operations, and shifting of virtual water demands (e.g., crop irrigation water) toward regions with cheaper or more plentiful water resources.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Groundwater Extraction Costs and Resource Depletion Limits on Simulated Global Nonrenewable Water Withdrawals Over the Twenty‐First Century

et al. 2019

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Future rates of global groundwater depletion will depend on the economic and environmental viability of extracting water from increasingly stressed aquifers. Here we analyze global groundwater depletion by considering these factors explicitly. Global gridded groundwater availability and extraction cost data are aggregated to produce nonrenewable resource supply curves for 235 major river basins and geopolitical regions. These resources are then exposed to dynamically generated demands for water in a fully coupled, multisectoral, global simulation. As groundwater head levels drop, imposing greater capital and operating costs to bring water to the surface, modeled water use sectors are able to deploy a range of supply‐ and demand‐driven adaptive responses. Results demonstrate large sensitivity in global groundwater depletion rates to adjustments in resource exploitability. Extraction costs moderate demands for nonrenewable water substantially, resulting in the onset of a decline in global groundwater depletion rates within the twenty‐first century. New groundwater depletion hot spots may emerge as crop producers abandon overexploited basins and expand croplands in regions with cheaper, more plentiful water resources.

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“…Researchers have already started using these scenarios for global water-use assessment with various global hydrological models (Bijl et al 2016, Hanasaki et al 2013, Mouratiadou et al 2016. A recent work was carried out by the Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/WFaS), which is a collaborative, stakeholder-informed effort applying systematic global scenario analysis to identify future hotspots of water insecurity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water use in a heavily urbanized delta : scenarios and adaptation options for sectorial water use in the Pearl River Basin, China

Yao¹

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The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cited by 82 publications

References 51 publications

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Influence of Groundwater Extraction Costs and Resource Depletion Limits on Simulated Global Nonrenewable Water Withdrawals Over the Twenty‐First Century

Water use in a heavily urbanized delta : scenarios and adaptation options for sectorial water use in the Pearl River Basin, China

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