The Impact of Climate Change on Urban Thermal Environment Dynamics

Abstract

The human population is increasing. The ongoing urbanization process, in conjunction with climate change, is causing larger environmental footprints. Consequently, quality of life in urban systems worldwide is under immense pressure. Here, the seasonal characteristics of Maribor’s urban thermal environment were studied from the perspectives of surface urban heat island (SUHI) and urban heat island (UHI) A remote sensing thermal imagery time series and in-situ measurements (stationary and mobile) were combined with select geospatial predictor variables to model this atmospheric phenomenon in its most intensive season (summer). Finally, CMIP6 climate change scenarios and models were considered, to predict future UHI intensity. Results indicate that Maribor’s UHI intensity maximum shifted from winter to spring and summer. The implemented generalized additive model (GAM) underestimates UHI intensity in some built-up parts of the study area and overestimates UHI intensity in green vegetated areas. However, by the end of the century, UHI magnitude could increase by more than 60% in the southern industrial part of the city. Such studies are of particular concern, in regards to the increasing frequency of heat waves due to climate change, which further increases the (already present) heat stress in cities across the globe.

Preliminary assessment of the vulnerabilities in urban ecosystems as a result of climate change effects. Case studies.

“…Urban agglomerations viewed from the perspective of climate change present an increased thermal stress, the urban heat island effect. Another manifestation of meteorological phenomena attributed to climate change are those of risk, such as disturbances related to precipitation that are either absent for long periods of time and determine a deficient water regime for the soil, or as large amounts in very short periods of time causing floods [1]. In the urban environment, large amounts of precipitation only to a small extent infiltrate rates into the unsaturated zone, most of it drains under the effect of gravity.…”