The Impact of Climate Change on Migration Patterns in Coastal Communities

Abstract

Climate change is a major global challenge affecting migration patterns, particularly in coastal communities vulnerable to sea-level rise, flooding, and extreme weather. Pakistan, with its extensive coastline and diverse environmental conditions, faces significant climate-induced migration issues, especially in Karachi, Thatta, Gwadar, Badin, and Muzaffargarh. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on migration patterns in these five selected regions of Pakistan. By analyzing climate variables and socio-economic factors, the research seeks to provide a localized understanding of how climate change drives population movements. A cross-sectional survey design was employed to gather data from 350 participants across these regions. Stratified random sampling ensured representation from each area, and data were collected using a structured questionnaire administered online. Statistical analyses included multiple linear regression, logistic regression, and structural equation modeling (SEM). This study found a strong positive relationship between climate change variables (sea level rise, temperature increases, and flooding) and migration patterns. Both direct impacts of climate change and indirect socio-economic factors influenced the likelihood of migration. The SEM analysis revealed that climate awareness partially mediates the relationship between climate change and migration. In conclusion, climate change significantly drives migration in Pakistan’s coastal communities, with both direct environmental impacts and socio-economic conditions playing crucial roles. Enhanced climate awareness and comprehensive adaptation strategies are essential. Policies should focus on climate resilience through infrastructure improvements, early warning systems, and socio-economic support programs. Strengthening education and economic opportunities is vital to build community resilience and effectively manage climate-induced migration.