The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Punjab: An Auto Regression Distributed Lag Model

Abstract

This paper investigates the trends and impact of climate change on production of paddy in Punjab for the period 1990 to 2021. Employing ARDL analysis to assess both short and long-term perspectives, alongside diagnostic analysis, the research finds that positive relationship between rainfall and rice production. Specifically, a 1% rise in rainfall leads to a 0.88% increase in rice production. Similarly, a 1% increase in maximum temperature is associated with a 1.82% rise in rice production. Additionally, a 1% increase in minimum temperature resulted in a 4.67% boost in rice production. In conclusion, this research confirms that rainfall and temperature have a favourable effect on rice output. Furthermore, the paper highlights the importance of government support and effective policy implementation as key factors contributing to these observed outcomes.