The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976–2004

Abstract

SU MMARYSince the 1970s, the delivered sugar yield per hectare has risen at an average annual rate of 0 . 111 t/ha, while the sugar yield in the official variety trials has increased at an average annual rate of 0 . 204 t/ha. These increases are usually considered to be the result of improvements in varieties and in beet agronomy. The present paper considers the possible impact of recent changes in climate on UK sugar yields by using the Broom's Barn Crop Growth Model and daily weather data collected over the last 30 years. Simulations of sugar yield using weather in eastern England since 1976 increased by an average annual rate of 0 . 139 t/ha, which accounted for about two thirds of the rate in the official variety trials. This increase was not an artefact of the accuracy of weather recording but it was, in part, accounted for by the trend to earlier sowing. Although it was not statistically significant, the earlier sowing trend was associated with an increase of 0 . 025 t/ha per year and was an indirect effect of the climate change. The annual deviations from these trends have not tended to become significantly bigger or smaller over the three decades. The model is not variety-specific, so it makes no allowance for variety improvements during the last 30 years. Clearly, varieties have improved so the implication must be that some of the changes in agronomy have tended to decrease the yields significantly. The changes in agronomic practice most likely to be responsible are the extension of the crop processing campaign, leading to greater post-harvest storage losses, and a decrease in the irrigated area.

The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields

“…3). These results are consistent with previous work that has found long-term climate trends should have increased sugar beet yields in the United Kingdom, decreased wheat yields in France, and that the yield potential of wheat and barley has declined over much of Europe due to warming (3,9,16).…”

“…Existing empirical evidence for either explanation is typically weak, taking the form of coincidence in the direction and timing of expected climate or policy effects with yield trends, so the relative importance of these mechanisms has not been rigorously demonstrated (3,9). More persuasive detection and attribution studies instead identify impacts using a distinctive spatial pattern of trends associated with climate change forcing (10,11).…”

Modelling climate impacts on crop yields in Belgium

“…Technological advances might also indirectly result from climate change, such as improved varieties that allow for earlier sowing dates. Effects of climate and technological advances on annual yield rates are closely related but can be separated using data from variety trials, as demonstrated by Jaggard et al (2007).…”

Leaf concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in phaseolus vulgaris l. Plants under high CO2 concentration and drought stress

“…Recently, there has been an increasing fear how the future climate conditions may affect the productivity of crops (LUO et al, 2005;JAGGARD et al, 2007;COSTA et al, 2009). Among these futures climate conditions are the increase of CO2 concentration and alteration on the water availability (LUO et al, 2005;JAGGARD et al, 2007).…”

“…Among these futures climate conditions are the increase of CO2 concentration and alteration on the water availability (LUO et al, 2005;JAGGARD et al, 2007).…”