The Impact of Climate Change on Forest Tree Species Dieback and Changes in Their Distribution

Pietrzykowski, Marcin; Woś, Bartłomiej

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-76863-8_23

“…As we see in our results, the species can persist within their current range and even their native range, as indicated by the areas with prevalent stable probability of occurrence, despite environmental conditions being sub-optimal, for instance, for sexual reproduction and expansion. However, the species may eventually confront this climatic debt through abrupt range shifts, potentially leading to widespread forest dieback, particularly when critical thresholds are crossed due to repeated extreme climatic events or climate-induced pest outbreaks (Ba lazy, 2020;Menezes-Silva et al, 2019;Pietrzykowski and Woś, 2021).…”

Section: Species' Ranges Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-decadal trend analysis and forest disturbance assessment of European tree species: concerning signs of a subtle shift

Bonannella,

Parente,

de Bruin

et al. 2023

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Climate change poses a significant threat to the distribution and composition of forest tree species worldwide. European forest tree species' range is expected to shift to cope with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, pests and diseases caused by climate change. Despite numerous regional studies, a continental scale assessment of current changes in species distributions in Europe is missing due to the difficult task of modeling a species realized distribution and to quantify the influence of forest disturbances on each species. In this study we conducted a trend analysis on the realized distribution of 6 main European forest tree species (Abies alba Mill., Fagus sylvatica L., Picea abies L. H. Karst., Pinus nigra J. F. Arnold, Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus robur L.) to capture and map the prevalent trends in probability of occurrence for the period 2000–2020. We also analyzed the impact of forest disturbances on each species' range and identified the dominant disturbance drivers. Our results revealed an overall trend of stability in species' distributions (85% of the pixels are considered stable by 2020 for all species) but we also identified some hot spots characterized by negative trends in probability of occurrence, mostly at the edges of each species' latitudinal range. Additionally, we identified a steady increase in disturbance events in each species' range by disturbance (affected range doubled by 2020, from 3.5% to 7% on average) and highlighted species-specific responses to forest disturbance drivers such as wind and fire. Overall, our study provides insights into distribution trends and disturbance patterns for the main European forest tree species. The identification of range shifts and the intensifying impacts of disturbances call for proactive conservation efforts and long-term planning to ensure the resilience and sustainability of European forests.

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“…As we see in our results, the species can persist within their current range and even their native range, as indicated by the areas with prevalent stable probability of occurrence, despite environmental conditions being sub-optimal, for instance, for sexual reproduction and expansion. However, the species may eventually confront this climatic debt through abrupt range shifts, potentially leading to widespread forest dieback, particularly when critical thresholds are crossed due to repeated extreme climatic events or climate-induced pest outbreaks (Bałazy, 2020;Menezes-Silva et al, 2019;Pietrzykowski and Woś, 2021).…”

Section: Species' Range Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-decadal trend analysis and forest disturbance assessment of European tree species: concerning signs of a subtle shift

Bonannella,

Parente,

de Bruin

et al. 2023

Preprint

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change poses a significant threat to the distribution and composition of forest tree species worldwide. European forest tree species' range is expected to shift to cope with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, pests and diseases caused by climate change. Despite numerous regional studies, a continental scale assessment of current changes in species distributions in Europe is missing due to the difficult task of modeling a species realized distribution and to quantify the influence of forest disturbances on each species. In this study we conducted a trend analysis on the realized distribution of 6 main European forest tree species (Abies alba Mill., Fagus sylvatica L., Picea abies L. H. Karst., Pinus nigra J. F. Arnold, Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus robur L.) to capture and map the prevalent trends in probability of occurrence for the period 2000–2020. We also analyzed the impact of forest disturbances on each species' range and identified the dominant disturbance drivers. Our results revealed an overall trend of stability in species' distributions (85% of the pixels are considered stable by 2020 for all species) but we also identified some hot spots characterized by negative trends in probability of occurrence, mostly at the edges of each species' latitudinal range. Additionally, we identified a steady increase in disturbance events in each species' range by disturbance (affected range doubled by 2020, from 3.5% to 7% on average) and highlighted species-specific responses to forest disturbance drivers such as wind and fire. Overall, our study provides insights into distribution trends and disturbance patterns for the main European forest tree species. The identification of range shifts and the intensifying impacts of disturbances call for proactive conservation efforts and long-term planning to ensure the resilience and sustainability of European forests.

show abstract

“…As we see in our results, the species can persist within their current range and even their native range, as indicated by the areas with prevalent stable probability of occurrence, despite environmental conditions being sub-optimal, for instance, for sexual reproduction and expansion. However, the species may eventually confront this climatic debt through abrupt range shifts, potentially leading to widespread forest dieback, particularly when critical thresholds are crossed due to repeated extreme climatic events or climate-induced pest outbreaks (Ba lazy, 2020; Menezes-Silva et al, 2019;Pietrzykowski and Woś, 2021).…”

Section: Species' Ranges Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal modeling of vegetation dynamics in a changing environment: combining earth observation and machine learning

Bonannella

0

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The Impact of Climate Change on Forest Tree Species Dieback and Changes in Their Distribution

Cited by 9 publications

References 62 publications

Multi-decadal trend analysis and forest disturbance assessment of European tree species: concerning signs of a subtle shift

Multi-decadal trend analysis and forest disturbance assessment of European tree species: concerning signs of a subtle shift

Multi-decadal trend analysis and forest disturbance assessment of European tree species: concerning signs of a subtle shift

Spatiotemporal modeling of vegetation dynamics in a changing environment: combining earth observation and machine learning

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