The impact of climate temperature on counts, recovery, and death rates due to SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa

Chetty, Naven; Adeleye, Bamise; Ilori, Abiola Olawale

doi:10.1101/2020.07.16.20155523

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Notably, although SARS-CoV-2 first spread in the temperate zone ( Chennakesavulu and Reddy, 2020 ; Huang et al, 2020 ; Sajadi et al, 2020 ; Sarmadi et al, 2020 ), India and Singapore are located outside the temperate zone, while Norway is at the most northern edge of the temperate zone. Interestingly, some studies also reported no correlation between temperature and the local transmission of SARS-CoV-2 ( Briz-Redón and Serrano-Aroca, 2020 ; Chetty et al, 2020 ; Harbert et al, 2020 ; Wu et al, 2020a ; Yao et al, 2020b ) ( Table 1 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales

Byun

Heo

et al. 2021

Environmental Research

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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 50 million people and killed more than one million, worldwide, during less than a year course. COVID-19, which has already become the worst pandemic in the last 100 years, is still spreading worldwide. Since the beginning of the outbreak, it has been of particular interest to understand whether COVID-19 is seasonal; the finding might help for better planning and preparation for the fight against the disease. Over the past 12 months, numerous empirical and epidemiological studies have been performed to define the distinct diffusion patterns of COVID-19. Thereby, a wealth of data has accumulated on the relationship between various seasonal meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmissibility at global and local scales. In this review, we aimed to discuss whether COVID-19 exhibits any seasonal features in a global and local perspective by collecting and providing summaries of the findings from empirical and epidemiological studies on the COVID-19 pandemic during its first seasonal cycle.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales

Byun

Heo

et al. 2021

Environmental Research

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“…Our study also showed that average temperature and sunshine duration were not significantly associated with the transmission of COVID-19 outbreaks, for the entire cumulative lag days during the study period in Addis Ababa. Studies in South Africa, Canada, Australia, and Pakistan also reported a non-significant association between temperature and COVID-19 incidence 14,[24][25][26] . In contrast to these findings, studies conducted in India and Bangladesh found that increasing temperature was significantly associated with increasing number of COVID-19 cases 12,27 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission in Ethiopia

Endeshaw

Getnet

Temesgen

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Climatic conditions play a key role in the transmission and pathophysiology of respiratory tract infections, either directly or indirectly. However, their impact on the COVID-19 pandemic propagation is yet to be studied. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed on the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Data on confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained from the National Data Management Center at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute for the period 10th March 2020 to 31st October 2021. Data for climatic factors were obtained from the Ethiopia National Meteorology Agency. The correlation between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and climatic factors was measured using the Spearman rank correlation test. The log-link negative binomial regression model was used to fit the effect of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission, from lag 0 to lag 14 days. During the study period, a total of 245,101 COVID-19 cases were recorded in Addis Ababa, with a median of 337 new cases per day and a maximum of 1903 instances per day. A significant correlation between COVID-19 cases and humidity was observed with a 1% increase in relative humidity associated with a 1.1% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.989, 95% (0.97–0.99)] and 1.2% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.988, (0.97–0.99)] decrease in COVID-19 cases for 4 and 5 lag days prior to detection, respectively. The highest increase in the effect of wind speed and rainfall on COVID-19 was observed at 14 lag days prior to detection with IRRs of 1.85 (95%CI 1.26–2.74) and 1.078 (95%CI 1.04–1.12), respectively. The lowest IRR was 1.109 (95%CI 0.93–1.31) and 1.007 (95%CI 0.99–1.02) both in lag 0, respectively. The findings revealed that none of the climatic variables influenced the number of COVID-19 cases on the day of case detection (lag 0), and that daily average temperature and sunshine duration were not significantly linked with COVID-19 risk across the full lag period (p > 0.05). Climatic factors such as humidity, rainfall, and wind speed influence the transmission of COVID-19 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. COVID-19 cases have shown seasonal variations with the highest number of cases reported during the rainy season and the lowest number of cases reported during the dry season. These findings suggest the need to design strategies for the prevention and control of COVID-19 before the rainy seasons.

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“…Most research on environmental and meteorological effects with COVID-19 fatality has provided simple correlation coefficients or mapped global COVID-19 deaths against the global pattern of temperature changes resulting in predictions that these deaths would increase as the weather became warmer in spring 32–40 . Two time-series studies explored the relationship between temperature changes and COVID-19 deaths for specific cities in China and found that higher temperatures were associated with more deaths 41,42 .…”

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confidence: 99%