The Impact of Climate Variability on the Livelihoods of Smallholder Farmers in an Agricultural Village in the Wider Belfast Area, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change on smallholder farmers in South Africa, particularly focusing on the relationship between agriculture and weather patterns. Understanding this connection is crucial for helping farmers adapt to changing climate conditions and improve their resilience and sustainability. This research analyses 33 years of climate data (1990–2023) from the Belfast weather station to identify long-term climate trends, seasonal shifts, and the frequency of extreme weather events. Statistical analysis, including the Mann–Kendall test, revealed significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and the intensity of extreme weather events, indicating that climate change is already affecting the region. Specifically, the research highlighted significant damage to agricultural infrastructure, such as greenhouses, due to climate-related wind events. This study emphasises the importance of using digital technologies to monitor weather patterns in real-time, aiding in decision-making, and enhancing agricultural efficiency. Additionally, it calls for further research into the social impacts of climate variability, including its effects on community cohesion, migration, and access to social services among smallholder farmers. These findings provide a foundation for developing effective interventions to support the resilience of smallholder farming communities in the face of climate change. Future studies need to consider how climate variability affects farmers’ abilities to access markets, both in terms of transport and product quality.