The impact of climatic variations on the reproductive success of Gentiana lutea L. in a Mediterranean mountain area

Abstract

Increases in temperature have been predicted and reported for the Mediterranean mountain ranges due to global warming and this phenomenon is expected to have profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We hereby present the case of Gentiana lutea L. subsp. lutea, a rhizomatous long-lived plant living in Central-Southern Europe, which is at the edge of its ecological and distributional range in Sardinia. Concretely, we analysed the reproductive success experienced during three phenological cycles (2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016) in four representative populations, with particular attention to the phenological cycle of 2014/2015, which has been recorded as one of the warmest periods of the last decades. The Smirnov-Grubbs test was used to evaluate differences in temperature and precipitation regimes among historical data and the analysed years, while the Kruskal-Wallis followed by the Wilcoxon test was used to measure differences between anthesis and reproductive performances among cycles and populations. In addition, generalised linear models were carried out to check relationships between climate variables and reproductive performance. Significant differences among climate variables and analysed cycles were highlighted, especially for maximum and mean temperatures. Such variations determined a non-flowering stage in two of the four analysed populations in 2014/2015 and significant differences of further five reproductive traits among cycles. These results confirmed that in current unstable climatic conditions, which are particularly evident in seasonal climates, reproductive success can be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of climatic anomalies. Considering the importance of this issue and the ease and cost-effectiveness of reproductive success monitoring, we argue that research in this sense can be a supporting tool for the enhancement of future crucial targets such as biodiversity conservation and the mitigation of global warming effects.

Predicting the consequences of global warming on Gentiana lutea germination at the edge of its distributional and ecological range

“…This could indicate that these populations, which are located at lower altitudes and at the edge of its distributional and ecological range, would be more threatened, if facing shorter winters. Seed germination results obtained in this work, in particular, the detection that seeds of G. lutea needed at the least 60 days of cold temperature to remove dormancy, are in agreement with previous studies (Fois et al, 2016;Cuena-Lombraña et al, 2018b) which reported that the most affected localities are those that are present at the lowest altitudes. Therefore, with the results presented here, it is possible to affirm that, while also considering the germination capacity of the seeds, climate warming will likely first affect the localities of G. lutea at lower altitudes.…”

Climate change influences on the potential distribution of Dianthus polylepis Bien. ex Boiss. (Caryophyllaceae), an endemic species in the Irano-Turanian region

“…Climate change is known as a major threat to species survival and the integrity of ecosystems worldwide [ 1 , 2 ]. Numerous studies have documented the effects of climate change on biodiversity during the twentieth century, including alterations in distribution and phenology, and increases in extinction risk for many species [ 3 – 5 ]. Given these changes, assessments of the impacts of climate change on species’ geographic distributions are necessary to reveal the extent of risk and to permit the design of appropriate conservation programs for species.…”

Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?

“…Transformative stress can be experienced by biological systems as a result of high intensity-low frequency climate events, low intensity-high frequency climate events, or a particular sequencing of these events. Yet, ecological responses are typically modeled as a function of mean climate conditions [102,103] , with few models examining the implications of more short-lived climatic extremes [104][105][106]. The failure to incorporate extreme events into ecological models can create an inaccurate or incomplete understanding of future ecological conditions [6,103], since ecosystems respond to both changes in mean environmental conditions, as well as to extreme events [107,108].…”