The impact of COVID-19 and working from home on the workspace retained at the main location office space and the future use of satellite offices

Accounting for the spatial incidence of working from home in an integrated transport and land model system

“…The range of the percentage of days working that are WFH that we assessed suggests a potential drop in the amount of office space required at the main office of between 85.2% and 62.8%. If we work with what appears to be the most likely scenario of one to two days WFH per week for many occupations, Hensher et al, 2022a , Hensher et al, 2022b predict a reduction in the percentage of office space compared to pre-COVID-19 of 79.6% for an average of one day WFH and 72.1% for an average of two days WFH. The decline of 20% to 28% in 2023 relates reasonably well to an occupancy rate in February 2022 of 18% for the Sydney metropolitan area.…”

“…Two models are used as the baseline for obtaining predictions of the probability of WFH on any day and the key influences of the obtained levels. We have presented the model structure in Hensher et al, 2022a , Hensher et al, 2022b using the data from the September 2020 time period (called Wave 3) in our ongoing longitudinal data collection in Australia. The commuter mode and time of day choice model with embedded WFH choice used in this paper is newly estimated using the June 2021 data (called Wave 4) given in Table 1 based on the structure in the top and bottom panels of Fig.…”

“…The commuter mode and time of day choice model with embedded WFH choice used in this paper is newly estimated using the June 2021 data (called Wave 4) given in Table 1 based on the structure in the top and bottom panels of Fig. 4 , and we refer readers to Hensher et al, 2022a , Hensher et al, 2022b for fuller details of the methods and interpretation of model results. In summary, we first estimate a commuter mode choice mixed logit model in which the choices are between no work, WFH and up to seven commuter modes for 7 days of the week and 4 times of day ( Fig.…”

“…The main model change involves using a mapping equation developed by Hensher et al, 2022a , Hensher et al, 2022b for the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area (GSMA), that enables us to obtain an estimate of the probability of WFH (compared to commuting from a commuting mode choice and time of day model) for each worker aggregated to a relevant origin–destination level for spatial profiling, as determined by socioeconomic and other drivers which have been parametrised from the latest wave of longitudinal data (June 2021), and used with aggregate data describing each origin and destination. We also incorporate changes in the amount of non-commuting trip activity consequent on WFH through elasticity estimates obtained from a Poisson regression model of one-way weekly trips for a number of trip purposes.…”

Enhancing Indoor Environmental Quality and Sustainability in Post-Pandemic Office Settings: A Study on Displacement Ventilation Feasibility

“…The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on office density. Many employees and employers are reconsidering the use of office space [42][43][44][45]. There is a shift in workspace design, with more employers rapidly changing how they respond to health risks [44], while other factors, advances in technology, shifting demographics, and novel work structures, etc., all make architects alter their designs correspondingly.…”