The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

Quaife, Matthew; Zandvoort, Kevin van; Gimma, Amy; Shah, Kashvi; McCreesh, Nicky; Prem, Kiesha; Barasa, Edwine; Mwanga, Daniel; Kangwana, Beth; Pinchoff, Jessie; Edmunds, W. John; Jarvis, Christopher I; Austrian, Karen

doi:10.1101/2020.06.06.20122689

Cited by 61 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Several studies have shown a very marked decrease in the number of contacts between the prepandemic and lockdown periods (9,(20)(21)(22)(23)(24), in agreement with what we found here, which parallels a decrease in mobility patterns (9,25). However, our study shows that the postlockdown increase in mobility patterns is not a good proxy of the daily number of in contacts in the four study locations (Supplementary Material, Sec.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS- CoV-2 transmission in China

Zhang

Litvinova

Liang

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 spread have been implemented in several countries with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogenous and difficult to interpret. Here we describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown, and post-lockdown period to quantify the transmission impact of relaxing interventions via changes in age-specific contact patterns. We estimate that the mean number of contacts increased 5%-17% since the end of the lockdown but are still 3-7 times lower than their pre-pandemic levels. We find that post-lockdown contact patterns in China are still sufficiently low to keep SARS-CoV-2 transmission under control. We also find that the impact of school interventions depends non-linearly on the share of other activities being resumed. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproductive number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission. Moving forward, to control COVID-19 spread without resorting to a lockdown, it will be key to dose relaxation in social mixing in the community and strengthen targeted interventions.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS- CoV-2 transmission in China

Zhang

Litvinova

Liang

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…[10][11][12][13] However, instituting these measures is also associated with deleterious economic and social, impacts, including large projected reductions in manufacturing, access to employment and basic necessities and educational advancement; and these effects appear to be greatest among those in lower-income and vulnerability categories. [14][15][16][17][18][19] Across the sub-Saharan African region, the Economic Commission for Africa projects an approximate 1.4% contraction in gross domestic product and that 25 million people are susceptible to entering extreme poverty. 20 Some have hypothesised that non-pharmaceutical interventions might be less effective in settings with large informal economies and limited ability to respond to increases in cases of severe disease, 21 and that their risks might outweigh their benefits.…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ObjectivesWe evaluated whether implementation of lockdown orders in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN).DesignObservational cohortSettingData were analysed from 11 primary healthcare clinics in northern KZN.ParticipantsA total of 46 523 individuals made 89 476 clinic visits during the observation period.Exposure of interestWe conducted an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in clinic visitation with a focus on transitions from the prelockdown to the level 5, 4 and 3 lockdown periods.Outcome measuresDaily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses, we assessed visitation for the following subcategories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases and by age and sex strata.ResultsWe found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day at the time of implementation of the level 5 lockdown (change from 90.3 to 84.6 mean visits/clinic/day, 95% CI −16.5 to 3.1), or at the transitions to less stringent level 4 and 3 lockdown levels. We did detect a >50% reduction in child healthcare visits at the start of the level 5 lockdown from 11.9 to 4.7 visits/day (−7.1 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI −8.9 to 5.3), both for children aged <1 year and 1–5 years, with a gradual return to prelockdown within 3 months after the first lockdown measure. In contrast, we found no drop in clinic visitation in adults at the start of the level 5 lockdown, or related to HIV care (from 37.5 to 45.6, 8.0 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI 2.1 to 13.8).ConclusionsIn rural KZN, we identified a significant, although temporary, reduction in child healthcare visitation but general resilience of adult ambulatory care provision during the first 4 months of the lockdown. Future work should explore the impacts of the circulating epidemic on primary care provision and long-term impacts of reduced child visitation on outcomes in the region.

show abstract

“…Frequently side-lined by the debates regarding the epidemiological data, public action against COVID-19 remains understudied today [2]. In early June, a rst study in Kenya with a sample of 213 people demonstrated the effectiveness of the policy package on the epidemic's reproductive rate [26]; however there is a lack of similar analysis in the Francophone West African region. The objective of this article is to describe and analyse the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 in Francophone West Africa during the rst four months of the pandemic, as well as the public measures taken to deal with it.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The COVID-19 Pandemic in Francophone West Africa: From the First Cases to Responses in Seven Countries

Bonnet¹,

Bodson

Marcis³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: In early March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit West Africa. Countries in the region quickly set up crisis management committees and organised drastic measures to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The objective of this article is to analyse the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 in seven Francophone West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Senegal) as well as the public health measures decided upon during the first four months of the pandemic. Methods: Our method is based on quantitative and qualitative data from the pooling of information from a COVID-19 data platform and collected by a network of interdisciplinary collaborators present in the seven countries. Descriptive and spatial analyses of quantitative epidemiological data and content analyses of qualitative data on public measures and management committees were performed. Results: Attack rates for COVID-19 range from less than 10 per 100,000 inhabitants (Benin) to more than 45 per 100,000 inhabitants (Guinea). The spatio-temporal analysis shows three phases of incidence clusters. By the end of June 2020, case numbers had plateaued in some countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali) while others continued to see the number of infections increasing (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Senegal). The countries all reacted quickly to the crisis, in some cases before the first reported infection, and implemented public measures in a relatively homogeneous manner. None of the countries implemented country-wide lockdowns, but in some cases implemented partial or local containment measures. At the end of June 2020, countries began to lift certain restrictive measures, sometimes under pressure from the general population or from certain economic sectors. All the countries have adopted response plans and organized multiple crisis management committees, although their content and functioning have not always been transparent or easy to understand. Conclusion: Much research remains to be done in West Africa. It will be necessary to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, which appears to be largely under control, as well as the effectiveness and implementation of the state responses, which have been rapidly formulated.

show abstract

The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

Cited by 61 publications

References 19 publications

The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS- CoV-2 transmission in China

The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS- CoV-2 transmission in China

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis

The COVID-19 Pandemic in Francophone West Africa: From the First Cases to Responses in Seven Countries

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About