The impact of COVID-19 employment shocks on suicide and safety net use: An early-stage investigation

Abstract

This paper examines whether the COVID-19-induced employment shock has increased suicides and the utilization of means-tested poverty alleviation programs in the first eight months of the COVID-19 crisis. We exploit plausibly exogenous regional variation in the magnitude of the employment shock in Japan and adopt a difference-in-differences (DID) research design to identify the employment-shock impact. Our preferred point estimates suggest that a one-percentage-point decrease in the employment rate in the second quarter of 2020 resulted in an additional 0.14-0.44 male suicides per one hundred thousand male population in June 2020 and an additional 5.3-7.9 Public Assistance recipients per one hundred thousand population in August 2020. The impacts on female suicides and other poverty alleviation programs are not precisely estimated, but there is suggestive evidence that the same employment shock has also increased the caseloads of the other poverty alleviation programs. We also examine the impact of the increase in the unemployment rate and find a positive impact on the poverty alleviation programs but not on suicides.

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

“…15 Three separate studies used a similar approach to analyse Japanese suicide statistics: one considered children and adolescents only and found no evidence of an increase; 16 and the other two considered all age groups and identified a decrease in the pandemic's early stages, 17 but highlighted an upswing in July, 2020. 17,18 Only five studies-from Greece, 19 Queensland in Australia, 20 Massachusetts in the USA, 21 Peru, 22 and Japan 23 -have used official data and accounted for temporal trends. The studies in Greece, Queensland, and Massachusetts found that the observed and expected numbers of suicides did not differ after pandemic responses were introduced.…”

“…22 The Japanese study confirmed fluctuations in suicides and identified a positive association between pandemic-induced employment shocks and suicides. 23 The evidence so far is insufficient to indicate what the effect of COVID-19 on suicides has been or will be. It is…”

“…Only five studies—from Greece, 19 Queensland in Australia, 20 Massachusetts in the USA, 21 Peru, 22 and Japan 23 —have used official data and accounted for temporal trends. The studies in Greece, Queensland, and Massachusetts found that the observed and expected numbers of suicides did not differ after pandemic responses were introduced.…”

“… 22 The Japanese study confirmed fluctuations in suicides and identified a positive association between pandemic-induced employment shocks and suicides. 23 …”

Suicidality and COVID‑19: Suicidal ideation, suicidal behaviors and completed suicides amidst the COVID‑19 pandemic (Review)

“…In particular, studies from Greece, Australia (Queensland) and the USA (Massachusetts) have demonstrated stability in suicide rates, whereas a study from Peru reported a decline in suicides following the implementation of a pandemic-related lockdown (76)(77)(78)(79). Another study from Japan demonstrated fluctuations in suicide rates and highlighted their association with pandemic-induced employment shocks (80).…”