The Impact of COVID-19 on Gun Violence Across Census Tracts in NYC

Abstract

This study explores the impact of COVID-19 on gun violence in NYC and its interactive effects with neighborhood factors at the census tract level. Random effects negative binomial models are used to analyze monthly data from January 2017 to March 2021. There was a significant increase in gun violence during the pandemic. In addition, poverty, economic inequality, African Americans, Hispanics, residential mobility, and total population were significantly associated with increases in gun violence. However, there were no significant interaction effects between the pandemic and neighborhood characteristics. This study concludes with a discussion of study limitations and implications.

Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis

“…Together, the shooting and assault comparisons across boroughs, while yielding several similarities, demonstrate the need for caution in examining city level effects when exploring the impact of COVID-related restrictions (and periods of social unrest) on violence. Citywide crime and violence numbers may mask contextual differences that exist within geographically smaller, and contextually dissimilar, areas, as was the case for what we detected in Manhattan and especially the Bronx which points to the importance of examining even further variability within the borough to examine locale-specific patterning (see also Kim, 2022 ). In sum, the extent to which associations between lockdown restrictions and social unrest with offending and violence differ across –and potentially within – areas with dissimilar socioeconomic, political, resource availability, racial/ethnic, relationships between citizens and police, and immigrant concentration conditions is essential to further our understanding of how violence waxed and waned within cities throughout the pandemic period.…”

“…These differences result in increased risk of exposure to COVID-19 as well as a greater historical risk of exposure to violence ( Fagan, Zimring, & Kim, 1997 ). Recently, Kim (2022) has highlighted that the increases in gun violence observed in NYC were unequally distributed, and that neighborhoods with a greater number of racial/ethnic minorities, those with higher rates of poverty, and those which are more densely populated saw the largest increases during this period.…”

The COVID-19 Pandemic, Stay-at-Home Orders, and Gun Violence: A Story of Two Cities

“…Future work should examine whether the pandemic had varying effects on gun violence across small geographic units within a given city. Only a few studies explored the impact of containment measures on change in various types of crime across communities or districts (Campedelli, Favarin, et al, 2020; Kim, 2022b; Sun et al, 2021).…”

COVID-19 and Homicide Special Issue Introduction

“…Given the increase in mass shootings, as well as increases in people being shot and injured or killed in during the pandemic (Everytown for Gun Safety, 2021), we must also consider increases in gun violence during this time, as Kim (2022) does in the issue’s next article. Data for the next contribution to the special issue examines gun violence in New York City, finding that there were no immediate increases in gun violence in March and April 2020, but that the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020 coincides with 3 months (May, June, and July 2020) of very high levels of gun violence, which later decreased but did not return to pre-pandemic levels (Kim, 2022). Other significant population-level contributions to higher levels of gun violence in this study include poverty, residential mobility, and population size; divorce rates are associated with decreases in gun violence.…”

“…Preliminary evidence, including the evidence presented in this special issue, indicates that violence and homicide—including gender-based violence and femicide—increased during the pandemic. There are multiple explanations for this—increased strain due to the pandemic (Murray and Davies, 2022) and high levels gun acquisition (Kim, 2022) are reasons discussed in the papers to follow. Should gun sales maintain 2020 and 2021 levels as we move away from the strain of the pandemic, mechanisms may become clearer.…”