The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain

Peña-Gallardo, Marina; Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M.; Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando; Beguería, Santiago

doi:10.5194/nhess-2019-1

Cited by 15 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 67 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…According to future climate change projections, droughts in this region are likely to become more frequent and severe by the end of the 21st century [ 17 , 18 ]. Assessments of drought impacts at different timescales have been conducted on several systems in the Iberian Peninsula using variables such as streamflow and reservoir shortages [ 19 , 20 ], groundwater level [ 21 ], vegetation activity [ 22 ], crop productivity [ 23 ], forest growth [ 24 , 25 ], and the occurrence of wildfires and areas burned by them [ 26 , 27 , 28 ]. However, analyzing the details of the relationship between drought characteristics and health impacts using different indices and different timescales is seldom considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis

Salvador

Nieto

Linares

et al. 2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A performance assessment of two different indices (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) for monitoring short-term and short–medium-term drought impacts on daily specific-cause mortality in Spain was conducted. To achieve a comprehensive, nationwide view, a meta-analysis was performed using a combination of provincial relative risks (RRs). Moreover, the subdivisions of Spain based on administrative, climatic, and demographic criteria to obtain the measures of combined risks were also taken into account. The results of the SPEI and SPI calculated at the same timescale were similar. Both showed that longer drought events produced greater RR values, for respiratory mortality. However, at the local administrative level, Galicia, Castilla-y-Leon, and Extremadura showed the greatest risk of daily mortality associated with drought episodes, with Andalucía, País Vasco, and other communities being notably impacted. Based on climatic regionalization, Northwest, Central, and Southern Spain were the regions most affected by different drought conditions for all analyzed causes of daily mortality, while the Mediterranean coastal region was less affected. Demographically, the regions with the highest proportion of people aged 65 years of age and over reflected the greatest risk of daily natural, circulatory, and respiratory mortality associated with drought episodes.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis

Salvador

Nieto

Linares

et al. 2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is important to note that the impacts of drought on different environmental and societal sectors are broadly determined by the timescale at which drought is assessed. In specific, the impacts of drought on agriculture and vegetation activity are mainly related with 3‐ and 6‐months timescales (Páscoa et al, ; Gouveia et al, ; Peña‐Gallardo et al, ). On the other hand, the hydrological impacts of drought depend on the characteristics of the basins.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High spatial resolution climatology of drought events for Spain: 1961–2014

Domínguez‐Castro

Vicente‐Serrano

Tomás-Burguera

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study characterizes the climatology of drought events over the mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands using high‐resolution (1.21 km2) meteorological data from 1961 to 2014. The climatology of drought was assessed based on two widely‐recognized drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), considering four different timescales (1‐, 3‐, 6‐ and 12‐months). Drought events were simply defined as sequences of months with negative values of the indices. We analysed the spatial and temporal variability of the frequency, duration and magnitude of the drought events. In general, the frequency of drought events is higher in the northern than in the southern regions. Conversely, the average duration and magnitude of the drought events in central and southwestern regions duplicate those recorded in northern areas. Although drought characteristics exhibit a general north–south gradient irrespective of the drought timescale and the drought index analysed, we found important spatial differences in terms of both drought duration and severity. As opposed to the SPI, the SPEI shows, on average, higher drought durations and magnitudes at 1‐, 3‐ and 6‐months timescales. Albeit of the absence of significant temporal changes in drought duration or magnitude at the regional scale, a nonsignificant tendency toward higher drought duration and magnitude is observed over the majority of Spain. Our result provide valuable guidance to stakeholders and decision‐makers on detecting, monitoring and adapting to drought impacts at local, regional and national scale in Spain.

show abstract

“…In particular, we are interested in quantifying the additional risk associated with compound dry and hot conditions compared to only dry or only hot conditions. Wheat and barley are chosen as they are two of the major rainfed crops in the Iberian Peninsula (Peña-Gallardo et al, 2019;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2006). Moreover, we here build on prior work which has estimated wheat and barley losses in the same area, but related to a single hazard, namely droughts (Ribeiro et al, 2019a, b).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas

Ribeiro¹,

Russo²,

Gouveia³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Drought and heat events stress agricultural systems and may threaten food security. The interaction between co-occurring drought and hot conditions is often particularly damaging to crop's health and may cause crop failure. In this context, traditional univariate analyses may not be adequate for reliable risk assessment of crop failure associated with compound hazards. Climate change exacerbates such risks due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of dry and hot events in many land regions. Here we model the trivariate dependence between spring maximum temperature, spring precipitation and wheat and barley yields, respectively, over two province clusters in Spain with nested copulas. Based on the full trivariate joint distribution, we (i) estimate the impact of compound hot and dry conditions on wheat and barley loss and (ii) estimate the additional impact due to compound hazards compared to individual hazards. We find that crop loss increases when drought- or heat-stress aggravates to compound dry and hot conditions and that an increase in the severity of compound conditions leads to larger damages. For instance, compared to moderate drought only, compound dry and hot conditions increase the likelihood of crop loss by 8 to 11 %, while when starting with moderate heat, the increase is between 19 to 29 % (depending on the cereal and region). This means that the likelihood of crop loss is driven primarily by drought stress than by heat stress, suggesting that drought plays the dominant role in the compound event, that is, drought stress does not require to be so extreme as heat stress to cause a similar damage. Furthermore, when compound dry and hot conditions aggravate from moderate to severe or extreme stress, crop loss probabilities increase 5 to 6 % and 6 to 8 %, respectively (depending on the cereal and region). Our results highlight the additional value of a trivariate approach for the estimating the compounding effects of dry and hot extremes on of crop failure risk. Therefore, this approach can effectively contribute to design management options and guide the decision-making process in agricultural practices.

show abstract

The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain

Cited by 15 publications

References 67 publications

Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis

Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis

High spatial resolution climatology of drought events for Spain: 1961–2014

Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About