The Impact of Dynamic Risk Interdependencies on the Saudi Precast Concrete Industry

Abstract

The precast concrete production process faces uncertainties and risks that reduce the efficiency of the Saudi precast concrete industry. Assessing the risk factors’ interdependence yields better results than considering individual analyses only. The previous precast risk studies did not consider the interdependencies among risk factors concerning different process stages. This paper aims to identify precast risk factors and prioritize their importance in Saudi Arabia. Using a dynamic Bayesian network, the assessment considers the interrelationships among the risk factors and different production stages. The risk factors were collected from previous studies, evaluated, and classified into the five construction stages by performing structured interviews with ten experts. The probabilities of the root risks and conditional probabilities of intermediate and leaf risks were assessed based on the ten experts. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to provide the status of these probabilities, which were considered input data for the GeNIe program. The main results revealed that erection productivity is the highest risk, with a probability value of 0.87. In addition, the design schedule’s significance directly impacts production capacity, resulting in a probability value of 0.74. However, the site management risk is low, with a 0.32 probability value. This paper assists practitioners in optimizing construction schedules.