The impact of extreme weather events on livestock populations: the case of the 2011 drought in Mexico

Murray‐Tortarolo, Guillermo; Jaramillo, Vı́ctor J.

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02373-1

Cited by 36 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The assessment of the economic risk due to global warming and the related HS on livestock kept inside confined buildings suggested a multistage process. (1) The temporal trend of meteorological parameters describing the environment of the livestock building was analyzed. It was shown that routinely measured air temperature and humidity data can be applied to assess the chosen HS indices.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Livestock production is threatened by various effects of global warming such as availability of feed and pasture, reduction in feed yield from drought [1][2][3], health aspects [4], new diseases, new transmitting vectors [5][6][7][8][9][10] and heat stress (HS). For pig and poultry, which are frequently kept inside confined livestock buildings, HS is often higher indoor than outdoor due to the release of sensible and latent heat of the animals [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

et al. 2021

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In the last decades, farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings have been increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase in mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which has been difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3–4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of gross margin. From the likelihood of HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk was determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10-year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year per animal place and increased by 20-fold to 5.13 € per year per animal place in 2030.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

et al. 2021

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“…Climate change is a significant threat for livestock production due to drought prone feed production and pasture growth [1][2][3], an increase in health risks and mortality from heat stress (HS) [4], as well as emergence of new diseases and transmitting vectors [5][6][7][8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reduction of the Economic Risk by Adaptation Measures to Alleviate Heat Stress in Confined Buildings for Growing-Fattening Pigs Modelled by a Projection for Central Europe in 2030

Schauberger¹,

Schönhart²,

Zollitsch³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Economic risks for livestock production are caused by volatile commodities and market conditions, but also by environmental drivers like increasing uncertainties due to weather anomalies and global warming. These risks impact the gross margin of farmers and can stimulated investment decisions. For confined pig and poultry production, farmers can reduce the environmental impact by implementing specific adaptation measures to reduce heat stress. A simulation model driven by meteorological data was used to calculate heat stress impact as a projection for 2030. For a business-as-usual livestock building, the indoor climate for several adaptation measures was calculated. The weather-related value-at risk quantified the economic risks caused by global warming and the stochastic component of the weather. The results show that only energy-saving adaptation measures to reduce the inlet air temperature are appropriate to reduce the economic risk to the level of the year 1980. The efficiency of other adaptation measures to reduce heat stress is distinctly lower. The results in this study can support the decision making of farmers concerning adaptation management and investments. It can inform agricultural policy design as well as technological development.

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“…Livestock production is threatened by various effects of global warming such as the availability of feed, pasture and the reduction in feed yield from drought [1][2][3], new diseases and new transmitting vectors [4][5][6][7][8], and heat stress (HS). For livestock, which is frequently kept inside confined livestock buildings such as pig and poultry, HS is worsened by higher temperature and humidity compared to the outside situation, due to the release of sensible and latent heat of the animals [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the context of an economic risk assessment, three preconditions can be identified for the use of HS indices: (1) The quantification of HS inside a livestock building requires models, which take into account the complex relationship between the meteorological outdoor situation, the thermal features of the building, the ventilation system, and the livestock as a source for sensible and latent heat [9,30,31]. (2) The predictors for impact functions, which quantify the effect of HS on the performance of the animals (feed intake, average daily gain, feed conversion ratio, morbidity and mortality etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

Schauberger¹,

Schönhart²,

Zollitsch³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the last decades farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings are increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase of the mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in the gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed, that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which is so far difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for a weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3-4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of the gross margin. From the likelihood of the HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk could be determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10 year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year and animal place and increased by the 20-fold to 5.13 € per year and animal place in 2030.

show abstract

The impact of extreme weather events on livestock populations: the case of the 2011 drought in Mexico

Cited by 36 publications

References 32 publications

Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

Reduction of the Economic Risk by Adaptation Measures to Alleviate Heat Stress in Confined Buildings for Growing-Fattening Pigs Modelled by a Projection for Central Europe in 2030

Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

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