The impact of future climate and land use/cover change on water resources in the Ndembera watershed and their mitigation and adaptation strategies

Hyandye, Canute; Worqul, Abeyou; Martz, Lawrence W.; Muzuka, Alfred N. N.

doi:10.1186/s40068-018-0110-4

Cited by 48 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…SWAT has been used to assess the impacts of anthropogenic activities that degenerate the natural river basin systems and thus impacting the water balance of a watershed [57,58]. In recent years, SWAT has been widely used to simulate watershed hydrological processes in many countries [21,52,53,59,60].…”

Section: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Swat)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Said

Hyandye

Mjemah

et al. 2021

Earth

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This study provides a detailed assessment of land cover (LC) changes on the water balance components on data constrained Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed, using the integrated approaches of hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was validated and used to simulate hydrologic responses of water balance components response to changes in LC in spatial and temporal scale. PLSR was further used to assess the influence of individual LC classes on hydrologic components. PLSR results revealed that expansion in cultivation land and built-up area are the main attributes in the changes in water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The study findings suggest that improving the vegetation cover on the hillside and abandoned land area could help to reduce the direct surface runoff in the KWK watershed, thus, reducing flooding recurring in the area, and that with the ongoing expansion in agricultural land and built-up areas, there will be profound negative impacts in the water balance of the watershed in the near future (2030). This study provides a forecast of the future hydrological parameters in the study area based on changes in land cover if the current land cover changes go unattended. This study provides useful information for the advancement of our policies and practices essential for sustainable water management planning.

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Section: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Swat)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kilimanjaro. SWAT has been tested and used to solve complex watershed management problems in many regions all over the world [21,47,[51][52][53]. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are three-fold viz: to set up, parameterize and calibrate the SWAT model in terms of streamflow.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Said

Hyandye

Mjemah

et al. 2021

Earth

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“…There exist limited studies [28][29][30][31][32] that have demonstrated the impact of climate and land use change on the hydrological processes in the wetland-catchment nexus in East Africa. Yet, this information is vital to evaluate the possible vulnerability and resilience of these ecosystems to climate change, in particular the impacts of low predictability of precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Gabiri

Diekkrüger

Näschen

et al. 2020

Climate

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The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976–2005) and future climate (2021–2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase.

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“…These results are comparable with those from Woldesenbet et al (2018) in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia and Bossa et al (2014) in the West Africa region. The increase in ET due to forest expansion has been reported by Hyandye et al (2018), wherein they found that forest expansion (+7%) in Ndembera watershed located in Tanzania increased ET by approximately 8%.…”

Section: The Impact Of Land-use Change On Hydrological Responsementioning

confidence: 62%

“…In recent years, many studies examined the combined impact of land-use and climate change on hydrologic processes (Koch et al , 2015;Hyandye et al , 2018;Aboelnour et al , 2019). The findings from these studies consistently highlight the water balance components including streamflow, surface runoff, groundwater, and evapotranspiration are likely to be impacted by future land-use and climatic changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrological Response in Gumara Watershed, Ethiopia

Gebresilassie¹,

Taddele²,

Hailu³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Climate and land-use change affect the hydrologic cycle by altering streamflow (SF), surface runoff (SR), base-flow (BF), and evapotranspiration (ET). The Lake Tana basin has experienced both land-use and climate change over the past 40 years, and this change can continue in the future. Several studies have addressed the separate impacts of either land-use or climate change on the watershed's hydrology, but few have explored the combined impacts. In this study, the SWAT model was applied to evaluate the combined impacts of land-use and climate change on hydrological responses in Gumara watershed. This study examined four land-use scenarios that include the present (2015) and projected (2050) land-use based on the business-as-usual trend (BAU), expansion of irrigation crop (EIC), and expansion of forestland (EFL). The climate variables were simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the baseline (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and projected period (2045-2055) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The result showed that SR increase by 5.1% under BAU scenario while BF decrease by 6.5% without altering SF and ET noticeably. On the contrary, SF decrease by 12.5% and 5.2% respectively under EIC and EFL scenarios, while ET increase by 4.8% and 8.9% respectively under EIC and EFL scenarios. The simulated SF, SR, and ET under RCP8.5 may increase significantly by 34.3%, 51.8%, and 12.2%, respectively. Similarly, the simulated SF, SR and ET may increase significantly under the combination of all three land-use and RCP8.5 scenarios. The findings suggested that climate change will have a greater effect on hydrologic responses than land-use change. The expansion of agriculture and the wetter climate would exacerbate flooding, while the expansion of irrigation and forest offset SF increases. The results of this study can be useful to decision-makers and planners in the design of adaptive measures to climate and land-use change.

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The impact of future climate and land use/cover change on water resources in the Ndembera watershed and their mitigation and adaptation strategies

Cited by 48 publications

References 49 publications

Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrological Response in Gumara Watershed, Ethiopia

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