The impact of geopolitical risk on agricultural commodity prices

Hudecová, Kristína; Rajčániová, Miroslava

doi:10.17221/374/2022-agricecon

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Political events can cause substantial volatility in commodity prices, and these fluctuations can have cascading effects on other economic indices. For example, region-specific commodities, such as wheat, have shown a strong response to political events, which is consistent with similar estimates found in the existing literature (Hudecová and Rajčániová 2023). The GVIM method enhances our ability to quantify these relationships by providing a fast and quantitative representation of shifts in the explanatory variables.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Resource Price Interconnections and the Impact of Geopolitical Shocks Using Granger Causality: A Case Study of Ukraine–Russia Unrest

Kostaridou,

Siatis,

Zafeiriou

2024

JRFM

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Political events significantly impact economic indices, including agricultural commodities. While Granger causality is a well-established method for analyzing interdependencies between time series data, its traditional application can be challenging to interpret across multiple periods. This research enhances the Granger causality method to quantify changes in the interlinkages among variables over time, offering a more intuitive framework for analyzing how political events affect economic indices. The proposed method involves conducting Granger causality tests across different periods, forming vectors from the results to capture transitions from Granger-causing to non-Granger-causing variables. These vector amplitudes provide quantitative measures of changes with explanatory power over time. The dataset includes eight variables over a decade, focusing on the following major geopolitical events: the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with an intermediate “no-shocks” period as the reference. The results show significant changes in the interlinkages among the variables during crisis periods compared to stable periods. This enhanced method provides valuable insights, informing trading strategies and risk management during periods of geopolitical instability. This innovative approach offers a novel tool for market participants to better understand and respond to economic shocks caused by political events.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Resource Price Interconnections and the Impact of Geopolitical Shocks Using Granger Causality: A Case Study of Ukraine–Russia Unrest

Kostaridou,

Siatis,

Zafeiriou

2024

JRFM

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“…Yet, the winds of change whisper of a pressing need-a reevaluation of these safety nets. The world grapples with the wounds of global food price inflation, exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine [15][16][17]. The battleground of global food insecurity demands worldwide policies for social protection measures, but harmonizing these with rising inflation proves challenging, leading to what is called "scale-up fatigue" [4].…”

Section: Justification Of the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing Food Security and Nutrition through Social Safety Nets: A Pathway to Sustainable Development

Khan,

Daraz,

Bojnec

2023

Sustainability

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In this cross-sectional study, an investigation was conducted by collecting primary data from 379 household heads to examine the impact of social safety nets on household-level food security in the Torghar district of Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The comprehensive analysis encompassed the univariate, bivariate, and multivariate levels. The bivariate analysis revealed issues and shortcomings related to access to social safety nets, particularly within the Zakat system. These issues included corruption and nepotism, which hindered poverty alleviation strategies and the well-being of vulnerable households. Additionally, complex bureaucratic procedures and regulations impeded social interventions, and political factors posed a substantial obstacle. At the multivariate level, the study identified the specific factors contributing to food insecurity. Respondents from extended family systems, individuals aged between 46 and 55 years, and those with religious education were found to be more vulnerable to food insecurity. While social safety nets held promise for addressing food sustenance challenges among local low-income citizens, the negative impacts of political involvement, favoritism, and nepotism were evident and required urgent attention. These findings emphasize the need for coordinated efforts among the government, social safety net officials, and community to identify and rectify these existing issues. Fostering a sense of ownership and responsibility regarding the role and implementation of social safety nets towards achieving food security is crucial to enhancing their viability and effectiveness, ensuring continuous support for those in need.

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Dietary supplementation of cinnamaldehyde positively affects the physiology, feed utilization, growth, and body composition of striped catfish Pangasianodon hypophthalmus

Wahyudi,

Jusadi,

Setiawati

et al. 2023

Fish Physiol Biochem

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The impact of geopolitical risk on agricultural commodity prices

Cited by 5 publications

References 29 publications

Resource Price Interconnections and the Impact of Geopolitical Shocks Using Granger Causality: A Case Study of Ukraine–Russia Unrest

Resource Price Interconnections and the Impact of Geopolitical Shocks Using Granger Causality: A Case Study of Ukraine–Russia Unrest

Enhancing Food Security and Nutrition through Social Safety Nets: A Pathway to Sustainable Development

Dietary supplementation of cinnamaldehyde positively affects the physiology, feed utilization, growth, and body composition of striped catfish Pangasianodon hypophthalmus

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