The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population.

Abstract

We conducted the study described in this paper to investigate the impact of ambient temperature on mortality in the Netherlands during 1979-1997, the impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in particular, and the possibility of any heat wave- or cold spell-induced forward displacement of mortality. We found a V-like relationship between mortality and temperature, with an optimum temperature value (e.g., average temperature with lowest mortality rate) of 16.5 degrees C for total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, and mortality among those [Greater and equal to] 65 year of age. For mortality due to malignant neoplasms and mortality in the youngest age group, the optimum temperatures were 15.5 degrees C and 14.5 degrees C, respectively. For temperatures above the optimum, mortality increased by 0.47, 1.86, 12.82, and 2.72% for malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases, and total mortality, respectively, for each degree Celsius increase above the optimum in the preceding month. For temperatures below the optimum, mortality increased 0.22, 1.69, 5.15, and 1.37%, respectively, for each degree Celsius decrease below the optimum in the preceding month. Mortality increased significantly during all of the heat waves studied, and the elderly were most effected by extreme heat. The heat waves led to increases in mortality due to all of the selected causes, especially respiratory mortality. Average total excess mortality during the heat waves studied was 12.1%, or 39.8 deaths/day. The average excess mortality during the cold spells was 12.8% or 46.6 deaths/day, which was mostly attributable to the increase in cardiovascular mortality and mortality among the elderly. The results concerning the forward displacement of deaths due to heat waves were not conclusive. We found no cold-induced forward displacement of deaths.

Exploring the effects of high temperature on mortality in four cities in the Philippines using various heat wave definitions in different mortality subgroups

“…Temperature affects the thermoregulatory capacity of the person, which can be detrimental to overall health [14]. Occasional extreme heat days, such as HW, may pose even greater risks to the body, which is already at the current state of risk from the main temperature [10], especially for the at risk populations.…”

“…However, there is yet to be a unifying notion of standardizing HW definitions as these vary with respect to duration and intensity of temperature in a specific geographical area [11,12]. Nevertheless, various studies have similar observations of increasing risks with increasing duration and intensity, particularly on HW days [9–11,13,14]. Major heat wave events have been recorded in the past years, such as the 1995 Chicago heat wave event, which claimed more than 600 excess deaths [15] and, in the summer of 2003, more than 70,000 excess deaths were recorded in Europe, which was partially attributed to the HW days [16].…”

“…[4], adverse effects of these extreme temperatures will manifest mostly in cities of low- and middle-income countries, regardless of climatological orientation, whether in temperate, sub-tropical, or tropical context. Research has been done in temperate countries with regard to HW effects, with similar patterns of increased risk in increasing duration and intensity [9,10,13,14,17,18]. Most studies in sub-tropical and tropical cities have observed increased risks at both sides of the temperature extremes, with less or no emphasis on HW [4,19–22].…”

Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperatures, Heatwaves, and the Urban Heat Island in Athens, Greece

“…Published research that examines the effects of high temperatures on human health includes (a) studies that examine a single city such as Ahmedabad [19], Athens [37], Madrid [53], Budapest [54], Dublin [55], Montreal [56], Toronto [57], Sydney [58], Brisbane [59], and São Paulo [60]; (b) studies that examine a relatively small geographical region such as the state of Arizona [28] or the Netherlands [61]; and (c) multiple city studies such as [22,24]. Compared to the state of the art, this research is a single-city analysis that reflects significant potential, given (a) the size of the city, (b) its lasting exposure to high temperatures, and (c) the occurrence of heat waves and the increasing share of elderly people in the city's population.…”

Safety index of heat wave mortality using big data

“…For example, 2,000 heat-related deaths occurred in 1987 in Greece [9], 1,057 deaths in 1994 in the Netherlands [10], 1,388 deaths in 1994 in Osaka, Japan, [11] and 14,802 deaths in 2003 in France [12]. In order to tackle this very significant challenge, studies have analyzed relationships between air temperature and excessive mortality on national and regional scales in Europe [13]; England and Wales [14]; France [15]; Netherlands [10]; Madrid, Spain [16]; and Moscow, Russia [17]. The purpose of these investigations was to deduce ways to ameliorate the effects of heat waves on humans and provide options for mitigation and adaptation.…”