The impact of long-term changes in air temperature on renewable energy in Poland

Canales, Fausto A.; Jadwiszczak, Piotr; Jurasz, Jakub; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Ciapała, Bartłomiej; Kaźmierczak, Bartosz

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138965

Cited by 41 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…It can be considered that the efficient management of the development of photovoltaic power grid subsystems is hindered by, among others: long-term climate change, as well as local weather conditions [53], a solar activity that is difficult to predict [54,55], human activities and related emissions [56], large fluctuations in energy sale prices [57], agricultural land demand and land prices, quality and availability of electricity transmission infrastructure [44], renewable energy demand and incentives for solar farm operators [58], the quality of the power grid, or the characteristics of the installation that affect its productivity, such as the type of panels, sun exposure, shading and many other environmental elements [44,[59][60][61].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Photovoltaic Farms—Economic Efficiency of Investments in North-East Poland

2021

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The abandonment of conventional sources in favor of energy from renewable energy sources (RES) has a global dimension, and the dynamic increase in the share of energy from photovoltaic systems in the energy mix of many countries results from the possibility of obtaining it both on a small scale (micro-installations) and as part of economic investments (photovoltaic power plants). The study aimed to assess the economic efficiency of 22 photovoltaic farms located in northeastern Poland. The research covered 5 solar power plants with a capacity of up to 799 kWp (I), 13 between 800 and 1100 kWp (II), and 4 installations of 1.98 MWp (III). The evaluation was based on net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period (PP), profitability index (PI), accounting rate of return (ARR). Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out regarding the value of economic indicators. The analysis shows that all studied PV farms are economically justified investments (NPV > 0) regardless of the adopted scenario. Solar power plants of the largest analyzed capacity (group III) resulted in being the most profitable ones, but no linear relationship between the level of productivity and profitability was established. Due to the large variation in terrain shape in northeastern Poland, landscape value and social benefits, which are difficult to assess, the support system for investments regarding the construction of photovoltaic power plants proved to be the most effective in group I.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Photovoltaic Farms—Economic Efficiency of Investments in North-East Poland

2021

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“…In terms of solar resources, we observed an increasing trend in terms of availability; for wind, the opposite was found, but statistically significant trends were identified only for central Po-land. This finding is particularly important in the light of the observed increasing temperatures and their impact, both on the performance of renewables and on energy demand [60]. Complementarity analysis showed a good complementarity between resources on the monthly timescale, whereas for daily and hourly scales some negative correlation exists, but at significantly lower levels (less than −0.35).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

Complementarity and ‘Resource Droughts’ of Solar and Wind Energy in Poland: An ERA5-Based Analysis

et al. 2021

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In recent years, Poland has experienced a significant increase in the installed capacity of solar and wind power plants. Renewables are gaining increasing interest not only because of Poland’s obligations to European Union policies, but also because they are becoming cheaper. Wind and solar energy are fairly-well investigated technologies in Poland and new reports are quite frequently added to the existing research works documenting their potential and the issues related to their use. In this article, we analyze the spatial and temporal behavior of solar and wind resources based on reanalysis datasets from ERA5. This reanalysis has been selected because it has appropriate spatial and temporal resolution and fits the field measurements well. The presented analysis focuses only on the availability of energy potential/resources, so characteristics intrinsic to energy conversion (like wind turbine power curve) were not considered. The analysis considered the last 40 years (1980–2019) of available data. The Spearman coefficient of correlation was considered as a complementarity metric, and the Mann–Kendal test was used to assess the statistical significance of trends. The results revealed that: The temporal complementarity between solar and wind resources exists mostly on a seasonal scale and is almost negligible for daily and hourly observations. Moreover, solar and wind resources in joint operation exhibit a smoother availability pattern (assessed based on coefficient of variation). Further findings show that the probability of ‘resource droughts’ (periods when cumulative generation was less than arbitrary threshold) lasting one day is 11.5% for solar resources, 21.3% for wind resources and only 6.2% if both resources are considered in a joint resource evaluation. This situation strongly favors the growth of local hybrid systems, as their combined power output would exhibit lower variability and intermittency, thus decreasing storage demand and/or smoothing power system operation.

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“…Besides, the impacts of changing air temperature on the RES operations, heating and cooling systems, and electrical loads are investigated in Ref. 13. Both studies in Refs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both studies in Refs. 12,13 demonstrate that climate change can positively or negatively influence the power production of different RES technologies. The emerging critical impact of global epidemics on business resiliency in addition to operational and infrastructural resiliency in power systems. Although pandemics have been shortly introduced by Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in 2016 as a challenging issue for power system resiliency, 5 the recent COVID‐19 outbreak has demonstrated the obligation of considering pandemic planning to ensure business, operational, and infrastructural resiliency in power systems 14,15 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%