The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange Reserve Position

Abstract

A country’s foreign exchange reserves are its foreign currency savings that can be utilized to finance international transactions. The purpose of this study is to determine how macroeconomic indicators (exports, imports, exchange rates, inflation rates, and foreign debt) influence Indonesia’s foreign currency reserves. The researchers used secondary data in the form of monthly time series, as well as quantitative analysis using multiple linear regression. The model that was used was the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). According to the research, future exports and external debt have a positive impact on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves. Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves are negatively impacted by imports and predicted inflation rates, whereas the rupiah exchange rate has no effect. In the model, there is a short-run to long-run equilibrium relationship. The IRF results show that shocks from other independent variables have little effect on foreign exchange reserves and that the foreign exchange reserves variable contributes the most to the shocks that occur

Long-Term Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Organization of Islamic Corporation

“…The results of this study are in line with research conducted by Anwar et al, (2019) which showed that exports had a positive and negative effect on exports. The results of this study are supported by research conducted by (Rahmawati & Suriani, 2022).…”

“…While research from Juliansyah, Moulida, and Apridar (2020) found that exports had a negative effect on foreign exchange reserves. Based on research conducted by Anwar et al(2019) and Rahmawati & Suriani(2022)found that exports have a positive effect on foreign exchange reserves.Export activities are in contrast to import activities. The MABP theory reveals that when there is an increase in imports, the stock of nominal domestic money will decrease (Masdjojo, 2010).…”

Determinan Ekspor Besi dan Baja Indonesia

“…Ekspor merupakan sebuah motor penggerak perekonomian nasional yang menjadi salah satu komponen dalam menyumbang pendapatan nasional. Ekspor dapat menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui peningkatan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) (Rahmawati dan Suriani, 2022). Selain itu, naiknya aktivitas ekspor juga mampu menurunkan jumlah kemiskinan karena dapat menggerakan roda perekonomian dalam berbagai ruang lingkup ekonomi (Waheed, 2017).…”