The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Stroke Incidence in the Transdanubian Region of Hungary

Abstract

Cerebrovascular diseases are the leading cause of death and disability. The epidemiological background and predisposing factors have been the basis of many studies. We aimed to assess the effect of seasonal variability and meteorological factors on stroke incidence in Hungary. National and county-level secondary data were assessed for 2018–2019. We identified stroke with ICD codes I60, I61, I62 (hemorrhagic), I63, I65, and I66 (ischemic). The data were obtained from the University of Pécs Clinical Centre (number of patients per day according to sex and disease subtype, n = 1765). Daily average and maximum wind speed [m/s], precipitation [mm], temperature [°C], and frontal effect [warm/cold/mixed/no effect]) were provided by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. We found that 89.92% of the patients were hospitalized for ischemic and 10.08% for hemorrhagic stroke. We observed a significantly higher number of cases in the other months compared to winter (spring: +35.9%; p = 0.007, summer: +59.0%; p = 0.016, autumn: +36.5%; p = 0.01). In autumn, an increase in temperature increased the incidence of stroke (r = 0.210; p = 0.004). Temperature change affected ischemic stroke incidence (r = 0.112; p = 0.003). In contrast, the number of hemorrhagic stroke cases showed a mild but significant negative association with daily temperature change (r = −0.073; p = 0.049). Overall, a 1 °C temperature change compared to the previous day increased the daily number of admissions by 2.9% (p = 0.017). Air pressure change also affected hemorrhagic stroke incidence (r = 0.083; p = 0.025). Changes in temperature and frontal effects can increase the incidence of stroke. Modern forecasting technology can help the healthcare system prepare for possible increased workloads during critical periods.