The Impact of Meteorological Parameters on the Pattern of Malaria Incidence Rate in the Northwest, Ethiopia; Repeated Cross-sectional Study Design With Bayesian Approach

Abstract

Background: Commonly the incidence of malaria was determined by some meteorological parameters. However, updated evidences were not reported in the study area and recently malaria is reported as an epidemic disease in Ethiopia particularly in Amhara regional state. Therefore the study was aimed to estimate malaria incidence proportion linked with some meteorological parameters.Methods: A repeated cross-sectional study design was done in 8 districts of northwest Ethiopia. All malaria patients who visited the local health institutions in the study area were the study participants. A monthly malaria surveillance data were retrieved from 8 districts of North Gondar zone health department and metrological data were obtained from west Amhara metrology agency office monthly reported databases. Data was clean and analyzed by using R2 win bugs software. The bayesian generalized negative binomial regression model was fitted for parameter estimation. Results: The overall average cumulative annual malaria incidence rate during the study period was 29.9 per 100 populations. In this study relative humidity (IRR; 1.04 (95% BCI, 1.01-1.05), normalized difference vegetation index [IRR; 2.74(95% BCI, 1.35-5.58)], altitude [IRR; 0.97(95% BCI, 0.95 - 0.99], average maximum temperature [IRR; 1.07(95% BCI (1.05 - 1.09)] and average minimum temperature [IRR; 1.04 (95% BCI (1.02-1.07)] were the statistically significant predictors. However, monthly rainfall, length of a sunshine hour, monthly wind speed was not associated with malaria incidence. Conclusion: The research showed a greater incidence of malaria in the study area when compared to the national statistics. Climatic variability changes the pattern of the malaria incidence in the study area.