The Impact of Monetary Policy, Transport Costs and Substitute Prices on the Australian Wheat Futures Market Price

Abstract

This paper is going to analysis the impact of three different factors on the price of the Australian wheat futures market which might make contribute on the price model construction. According to the research in the past years, this paper gives three different factors which might be significant influence the price which is the interest rate, transport cost and substitutes' price. This paper use Hp filter to detrending the data and calculate the correlation. By analyzing the result, get the conclusion weather these three factors related to the price of the Australian wheat futures market. The conclusion is that interest rates are only weakly correlated, while the transaction cost and the substitutes' price have strong correlated to price of the Australian wheat futures market. This article helps to model the price of the Australian wheat futures market and other important related influencing factors can be further explored in the future.