The Impact of Monetary Policy and International Trade on Economic Growth and Inflation in ASEAN-4 Countries

Astuti, Rini; Udjianto, Didit Welly

doi:10.15408/sjie.v11i1.22142

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 21 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The research outcomes unveiled a persistent connection between monetary policy and economic growth in both developing nation of Bangladesh and the developed nation of the United Kingdom. Astuti and Udjianto (2022) conducted an in-depth study to explore the intricate connections between economic growth, international trade, inflation across four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand and monetary policy. The researchers employed vector However, over an extended duration, the study uncovered a favorable impact of these adjustments on economic growth.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Monetary Policy in Shaping Jordan's Economic Growth: A Regression Analysis from 2008 to 2022

AL-Tamimi,

Jaradat,

Aityassinec

2023

J. Professional Business Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose: The aim of this research is to investigates the correlation between monetary policy and economic growth in Jordan during the period from 2008 to 2022. The study evaluates significant macroeconomic indicators, including inflation rate, interest rate, money supply, and economic growth, within and beyond the specified time frame. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of monetary policy on economic growth through the utilization of the statistical technique of least squares regression. Accurate results are obtained using EViews, a widely recognized statistical program. The data for this study is sourced from reputable institutions such as the World Bank and Trading Economics. Theoretical framework: The importance of this study holds great significance as it aims to examine the link between monetary policy and the growth of the economy, a topic that has been the subject of extensive theoretical and policy discussions among economists over a significant period. Given the current economic conditions characterized by slow growth and concerns about potential deflation, as well as perceived constraints on economic policies, there is heightened interest in understanding this relationship. Consequently, the debate surrounding this issue has occasionally become intense and contentious. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Methodology plays a crucial role in scientific research as it provides researchers with a framework to follow in order to achieve objective and reliable results. The choice of methodology may vary depending on the academic discipline, with each approach having its own unique characteristics and functions that are utilized by researchers in their respective fields of specialization. In the context of this particular study, a descriptive approach was adopted for the theoretical aspect, while an analytical approach was employed for the practical aspect. By collecting macroeconomic indicators as time series data from 2008 to 2022, the study aimed to investigate the interconnection implementation of monetary policy and the growth of the economy. To examine the stability of the variables, unit root tests were employed, and the data utilized in the study was obtained from reliable sources such as the World Bank and Trading Economics. Findings: The result of this analysis reveals significant findings regarding the influence of various factors on economic growth from 2008 to 2022. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative association between the inflation rate and economic growth, with a significance level of 0.05. Based on this finding, the null hypothesis (H0) is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis (H1). However, the study determines that the impact of the interest rate on economic growth is not statistically significant at the 0.05 significance level. Consequently, the null hypothesis (H0) is accepted, and the alternative hypothesis (H1) is rejected. Finally, the analysis reveals a statistically significant positive relationship between money supply and economic growth, with a significance level of 0.05. As a result, the study rejects the null hypothesis (H0) and supports the alternative hypothesis (H1). These findings offer valuable insights into the connection between monetary policy and economic growth within the specified timeframe. The study highlights the need for further comprehensive research on the factors influencing the growth of the Jordanian economy. Specifically, it emphasizes the importance of investigating various indicators of monetary policy and their effects on economic growth in Jordan. It is recommended to consider inflation rate policies and implement economic reform measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of inflation on economic growth in the country. Furthermore, careful attention should be given to money supply and the policies implemented by relevant institutions, particularly regarding the circulation of money, due to its positive influence on economic growth. Research, practical & social implications: The aims of this study is to examine the interplay between various monetary policy instruments and the dynamics of economic growth, with a specific focus on the context of Jordan. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of monetary policy on economic growth through the utilization of the statistical technique of least squares regression. Accurate results are obtained using EViews, a widely recognized statistical program. The data for this study is sourced from reputable institutions such as the World Bank and Trading Economics.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Monetary Policy in Shaping Jordan's Economic Growth: A Regression Analysis from 2008 to 2022

AL-Tamimi,

Jaradat,

Aityassinec

2023

J. Professional Business Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Long et al (2021) dalam melakukan studi komparatif empiris pada money supply, inflasi dan output di Vietnam dan Cina menemukan bahwa variabel jumlah yang beredar dan ouput memiliki pengaruh yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi. Astuti & Udjianto (2022) menyatakan dalam jangka pendek kebijakan moneter efektif dalam mempengaruhi output dan harga (inflasi). Perdagangan internasional hanya dapat mempengaruhi dalam jangka pendek.…”

Section: Indikator Efektivitas Mtkm Saluran Uang Beredarunclassified

The impact of the monetary policy transmission mechanism-the money supply channel on the economy

Herlina¹,

Suci²,

Rahman³

2023

jbis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study aims to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism on the money supply channel to the economy with the goal of prices (inflation) and income (Real GDP) from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2021. The variables in this study include the BI Rate or Bank Indonesia reference interest rate, the money supply M0, the money supply M1, the money supply M2, inflation, and real GDP. The data processing phases begin with verifying data stationarity, optimum lag processing, and the Johansen co-integration test. Then this research employs an analytical method, namely the vector error correction model (VECM). The effectiveness of monetary policy transmission was analyzed using the optimal lag test. Then the impulse response and variance decomposition function to see the magnitude of the response of each variable. This study shows that the transmission of monetary policy to inflation through the money supply channel is more effective than the money supply channel to real GDP.

show abstract

“…One of the party's concerns with inflation is the central bank. In fact, it has become the main focus of the central bank to control and curb inflation through monetary policy (Astuti & Udjianto, 2022). The central bank will construct its inflation targeting framework (ITF) to take steps to bring the inflation level within the acceptable range (Setiartiti & Hapsari, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation forecasting using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models

Ponziani

2023

JESP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study attempts to evaluate and compare the inflation-predicting performance of several ARDL models. Since there was no cointegration, the ARDL model does not employ an error correction term. Subsequently, model development showed that ARDL(2,2) should be used. Besides the formally developed model, some other more arbitrarily chosen ARDL models were also included, i.e., ARDL(1,1), ARDL(2,0), ARDL(1,0), ARDL(0,1), and ARDL(0,2). This research measures forecasting performance with inflation as the forecasting object. The duration of the monthly inflation statistics ranged from January 2011 to July 2022. The data were separated into two categories. The training data ranged between January 2011 and December 2021. After getting the appropriate parameters from the training data, the models generated projections from January 2022 to July 2022. The research determined that ARDL (1,0) was the most accurate inflation forecasting model, followed by ARDL (0,2) and formally constructed ARDL(2,2) finished in fourth place. This study suggests that the formal development of ARDL for forecasting purposes is unnecessary. Formal ARDL development is more appropriate for root cause analysis. In addition, the single autoregressive component indicates that most of the inflation value's information originated from the prior period. This suggests that the previous period's value is Indonesia's most significant predictor of inflation. The impact of greater period lags on inflation forecasting diminishes immediately.

show abstract

The Impact of Monetary Policy and International Trade on Economic Growth and Inflation in ASEAN-4 Countries

Cited by 4 publications

References 21 publications

The Role of Monetary Policy in Shaping Jordan's Economic Growth: A Regression Analysis from 2008 to 2022

The Role of Monetary Policy in Shaping Jordan's Economic Growth: A Regression Analysis from 2008 to 2022

The impact of the monetary policy transmission mechanism-the money supply channel on the economy

Inflation forecasting using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About