The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economic Growth and Stability in Iraq through the Public Expenditure for the Period (2003-2020)

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of the research is to analyze fluctuations in global oil prices and identify the factors that control them. The study aims to clarify the nature and characteristics of the international oil market, as well as the relationship between oil, public expenditure, and the economy in rentier countries. The research seeks to provide insights into the economic effects of the dominance of the oil resource and track the trends of oil, public expenditure, economic growth, and development in Iraq. Additionally, the study aims to evaluate the extent to which the fiscal policies pursued by oil rent countries are serving their goals, and to recommend ways to ensure the rationalization of public expenditure and real economic growth in these countries. Theoretical framework: the research is based on several economic theories related to the international oil market and rentier economies. The study uses theories such as supply and demand, rentier state, Dutch disease, and public choice theory to analyze the economic effects of oil revenues in rentier countries, the factors that control the international oil market, and the behavior of governments and policymakers in allocating public funds. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopted the induction method to achieve the objectives of the research and get the intended results by analyzing the data and statistical tables of the sample country. Findings: The research findings suggest that oil rents lead to inefficiency, increased centralization of power, and patterns of public expenditure that decrease efficiency. Rentier economies face challenges in diversifying and reducing their dependence on oil exports. Adherence to budgets and developing transparent and flexible principles is crucial for real economic growth in rentier economies. Effective management of oil revenues and public expenditure is essential for sustainable economic growth in these economies. Research, Practical & Social implications: The research has practical implications for policymakers, emphasizing the need for effective management of oil revenues and public expenditure for sustainable economic growth. Social implications relate to the impact of oil revenues on society, highlighting the need for improved living standards and reduced poverty. Originality/value: The research is valuable as it provides original insights into the economic effects of oil rents and highlights the challenges faced by policymakers in managing rentier economies. The study's emphasis on effective management of oil revenues and public expenditure and the development of transparent and flexible principles adds value to the literature. The research provides valuable insights into the international oil market and emphasizes the importance of sustainable economic growth.