The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy

Schubert, Stefan Franz; Turnovsky, Stephen J.

doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.12.003

Cited by 36 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 34 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…Since we are dealing with a developing economy, where there is less discretion regarding the labor-leisure choice, the assumption of inelastic labor supply is not too restrictive. This is confirmed by our previous study of oil usage in a neoclassical growth model [Schubert and Turnovsky 2011] where the endogeneity of labor supply was shown to play a very minor role.…”

Section: Analytical Frameworksupporting

confidence: 86%

“…The steady-state equilibrium and long-run adjustments described in (11) and (12) for the endogenous growth model are quite markedly different from those for the neoclassical economy studied by Schubert and Turnovsky (2011). The difference stems from the long-run determinants of growth in the two cases and can be conveniently compared as follows 6 :…”

Section: Steady-state Equilibrium and Long-run Adjustmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, e F K fixed means that the capital-output ratio is independent of the price of energy, although the capital-output ratio declines as the economy becomes increasingly energy-dependent (see Schubert and Turnovsky (2011).…”

Section: Steady-state Equilibrium and Long-run Adjustmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The economy's assets are now valued less and the borrowing premium increases, with the borrowing rate increasing from around 7.76% to 7.78%. Lower output and a less valuable capital stock generate a negative wealth effect, inducing 13 See Schubert and Turnovsky (2011). (v) Growth rates: capital, energy, and output (vi) Growth rate: consumption Fig.…”

Section: Initial Equilibriamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We view the present paper as being complementary to Schubert and Turnovsky (2011), where we analyze the effect of a permanent increase in the price of energy on a small developing economy having a neoclassical technology. While the effects of energy prices share some things in common for the two technologies, there are also stark differences.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

Schubert

Turnovsky

2011

Open Econ Rev

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Section: Analytical Frameworksupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Steady-state Equilibrium and Long-run Adjustmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Steady-state Equilibrium and Long-run Adjustmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Initial Equilibriamentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

Schubert

Turnovsky

2011

Open Econ Rev

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Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal

Pereira

2013

Port Econ J

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This paper examines the economic and budgetary impacts of fuel prices using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Portuguese economy which highlights the mechanisms of endogenous growth and includes a detailed modeling of the public sector. The fuel price scenarios are based on forecasts by the US Department of Energy (DOE-US) and the International Energy Agency (IEA-OECD) and represent a wide range of projections for absolute and relative fossil fuel prices. In terms of the long term economic impact, our results suggest a 1.9 percent drop in GDP in the DOE-US scenario and 1.6 percent in the IEA-OECD scenario. As to the budgetary impact, higher fuel prices lead to lower tax revenues, which, coupled with a reduction in public spending, translate into lower public deficits. Accordingly, increasing fuel prices create an important policy trade off in that they can contribute to reducing the public deficit while hindering economic growth. We find that fairly strong incentives for wind energy can reduce the economic impact of fuel prices by 14.2 percent in the DOE-US price scenario and 18.5 percent reduction in the IEA-OECD price scenario. Finally, our results highlight the importance of public sector spending decisions and the mechanisms of endogenous growth in understanding the impact of fossil fuel prices. Indeed, a scenario of higher fuel prices would, with exogenous public decisions and exogenous economic growth assumptions, result in substantially smaller economic effects and yield adverse budgetary effects.

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The Economic and Budgetary Impact of Climate Policy in Portugal: Carbon Taxation in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Endogenous Public Sector Behavior

Pereira

2016

Environ Resource Econ

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The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy

Cited by 36 publications

References 34 publications

The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal

The Economic and Budgetary Impact of Climate Policy in Portugal: Carbon Taxation in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Endogenous Public Sector Behavior

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