The Impact of Political Events - “Name Issue” on an Emerging Macedonian Stock Market

Abstract

The objective of the research is to investigate the impact of political events-name issue‖ on the Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE). Structural changes in volatility of Macedonian capital market seems to be more a consequence of political changes, especially from the perspective of international politics and the association of the country into NATO and the European Union. The research analyzes the response of capital markets to political events. Such an event is the summit in Bucharest as the day D (03/04/2008) which certainly had an impact because of prolonged unresolved problem of the name imposed by Greece. Visa liberalization and the day of solving the status of candidate country for accession to the European Union will be discussed too. An event methodology is employed, and the results suggest that the market respond to all political events connected-name issue‖. The results also indicate that there is no difference between the means of abnormal returns before and after the event. Sensitivity of the Macedonian investor related to any information connected to the word "name" is enormous. The Macedonian investor belief is that if-name‖ issue would be solved, regardless of possible negative real economic flows stock exchange will increase. The paper provides information regarding the effects of solving this name issue on Macedonian investor, and his expectation on this issue. But even if it is solved, the global economic crises and difficult economic situation in Macedonia especially this situation will be temporary and due to low liquidity, foreigners may use local optimism to sell their shares.

Reaksi Pasar Saham Yang Terdaftar Dalam Jakarta Islamic Index (Jii) Terhadap Peristiwa Pemilihan Umum Presiden 17 April 2019 Di Indonesia

“…Perbedaan penelitian ini terhadap penelitian sebelumnya, pada umumnya terdapat pada peristiwanya, tahun pemilihan presiden, indeks yang diteliti, hasil dari penelitian. Menurut (Angelovska 2011;Chandra 2015;Evelyn and Basana 2018;Kabiru et al 2015;Suroto and Nugraha 2018;Wibowo and Darmanto 2019) yang menyatakan tidak terdapat perbedaan rata-rata abnormal return sebelum dan setelah event. (Lehander and Lönnqvist 2011) menyatakan tidak terdapat perbedaan rata-rata abnormal return dan trading volume activity sebelum dan setelah event.…”

“…Saham yang terdaftar di JII merupakan saham syariah yang investornya menghindari adanya transaksi spekulasi atau maysir (judi) sehingga return yang terbentuk berupa capital gain masih dalam batas wajar. Temuan penelitian tersebut sesuai dengan hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh (Angelovska 2011;Chandra 2015;Evelyn and Basana 2018;Kabiru et al 2015;Lehander and Lönnqvist 2011;Suroto and Nugraha 2018;Wibowo and Darmanto 2019) yang menyatakan tidak terdapat perbedaan rata-rata abnormal return sebelum dan setelah event.…”

Structural Breaks in Global Stock Markets: Are They Caused by Pandemics, Protests or Other factors?

“…This outcome was attributed to the quick response measures put in place by these countries. Angelovska (2011) investigates further into the cause of structural changes in the volatility of the capital market in Macedonia. Prior to the study, it has been noticed that these changes subsequent to political events and changes.…”