The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade between India and Belt and Road Initiative Nations

Manzoor, Hajra; Mir, Parvez Ahmad

doi:10.32381/prod.2022.63.02.4

Cited by 2 publications

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Evaluating India’s FDI as a nonparticipant in the Belt and Road Initiative: synthetic control method analysis

Elish,

Ahmed

2024

JCEFTS

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Purpose The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013 and implemented the following year, marking 11 years since its inception. During this time, numerous research papers have been published that analyse the initiative’s objectives, targets and potential outcomes. This study aims to assess India’s resilience in joining the BRI by examining its net foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to a counterfactual scenario involving participation in the initiative. Design/methodology/approach The synthetic control method (SCM) will be used using a panel of 27 countries from 1990 to 2021. Findings The findings reveal that India’s FDI trajectory has decreased compared to that of synthetic India constructed from BRI member countries. Research limitations/implications This research outcome can assist India and other nations that are contemplating joining the BRI to systematically evaluate the potential political and economic risks and benefits associated with the initiative. This evaluation can guide individual decision-making processes regarding the BRI on a case-by-case basis and with other outcomes that are deemed viable to each country. Originality/value This research is distinct from other studies because it uses a novel SCM analysis, which is a quasi-experimental technique that assesses actual outcomes rather than predicting them, as in conventional regression models. In addition, previous research has primarily focused on the political aspects of the initiative; however this study focuses on the economic aspect of the BRI by evaluating its impact on FDI.

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Evaluating India’s FDI as a nonparticipant in the Belt and Road Initiative: synthetic control method analysis

Elish,

Ahmed

2024

JCEFTS

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Is India’s reluctance to join the Belt and Road Initiative a missing opportunity? Synthetic Control Method Analysis.

Elish,

Ahmed

2023

Preprint

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Eight years have passed since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 which was put into action in 2014. Since then, a series of research papers have categorized their findings in relation to the initiative’s aims, targets, and estimations of possible outcomes. This research intends to measure the impact of India’s resilience to join this initiative on its net foreign direct investment by comparing its trajectory to the trajectory of the same outcome for a counterfactual unit of comparison from countries that have joined the initiative. The method that will be employed is the Synthetic control method (SCM) for a panel of 27 countries between 1990 to 2021. The empirical results show that the net Foreign Direct Investment FDI trajectory for India during the eight years from 2014 to 2021 has fallen compared to synthetic India constructed from BRI member countries. This research study is distinctive from other empirical contributions by using an inventive technique of SCM, which is a new experimental method to assess actual outcomes rather than predicting them, as in other conventional regression models. Moreover, the economic aspect of accessing the BRI has rarely been investigated, since most studies have qualitatively focused on the political aspect of the initiative. The results can assist in decision-making for India and other countries considering membership in this millennium initiative.

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The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade between India and Belt and Road Initiative Nations

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Evaluating India’s FDI as a nonparticipant in the Belt and Road Initiative: synthetic control method analysis

Evaluating India’s FDI as a nonparticipant in the Belt and Road Initiative: synthetic control method analysis

Is India’s reluctance to join the Belt and Road Initiative a missing opportunity? Synthetic Control Method Analysis.

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