The impact of subsidence and sea level rise in the Wadden Sea: Prediction and field verification

Marquenie, Joop M.; Vlas, J. de

doi:10.1007/3-540-27150-3_19

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Vertical land movement is a result of subsidence and glacial rebounds. A local subsidence due to gas extraction has been observed in the study area (Marquenie and De Vlas 2005), and it is expected to be between 0 and 0.1 m over the next 50 years (Van der Meij and Minnema 1999). In the simulations undertaken herein, a land subsidence of 0.1 m in the next 50 years was specified, representing the worst case scenario.…”

Section: Boundary Forcingmentioning

confidence: 98%

The morphological response of large tidal inlet/basin systems to relative sea level rise

2012

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The morphodynamic response of large tidal inlet/basin systems to future relative sea level rise (RSLR), incorporating both Eustatic sea level rise and local land subsidence effects, is qualitatively investigated using the state-of-the-art Delft3D numerical model and the Realistic analogue modelling philosophy. The modelling approach is implemented on a highly schematised morphology representing a typical large inlet/basin system located on the Dutch Wadden Sea (Ameland Inlet) over a 110-year study period. Three different RSLR Scenarios are considered: (a) No RSLR, (b) IPCC lower sea level rise (SLR) projection (0.2 m SLR by 2100 compared to 1990) and land subsidence, and (c) IPCC higher SLR projection (0.7 m SLR by 2100 compared to 1990) and land subsidence. Model results indicate that, for the 110-year study duration, the existing flood dominance of the system will increase with increasing rates of RSLR causing the ebb-tidal delta to erode and the basin to accrete. The rates of erosion/accretion are positively correlated with the rate of RSLR. Under the No RSLR condition, the tidal flats continue to develop while under the high RSLR scenario tidal flats eventually drown, implying that under this condition the system may degenerate into a tidal lagoon within the next 110 years. The tidal flats are stable under the low RSLR scenario implying that, at least for the next 100 years, this may be the critical RSLR condition for the maintenance of the system. Essentially the results of this study indicate that, as the Eustatic SLR is likely to be greater than the apparently critical rise of 0.2 m (by 2100 compared to 1990), the tidal flats in these systems will at least diminish. In Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands the worst, but not unlikely, scenario that the Eustatic SLR is as high as the IPCC higher projections (0.7 m by 2100), the tidal flats may completely disappear. In either case, the associated environmental and socio-economic impacts will be massive. Therefore, more research focusing on the quantification of the physical and socio-economic impacts of RSLR on these systems is urgently needed to enable the development of effective and timely adaptation strategies.

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Section: Boundary Forcingmentioning

confidence: 98%

The morphological response of large tidal inlet/basin systems to relative sea level rise

2012

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“…1998) and is expected to increase even further (potentially up to 1·2 cm year −1 in 2100; van Dorland, Dubelaar‐Versluis & Jansen 2009). The recent increase in SLR is mainly attributed to global warming causing seawater to expand (IPCC 2007), but some land subsidence due to post‐glacial rebound and local gas‐extraction also occurs in this estuary (Marquenie & de Vlas 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this estuary mean sea levels have been rising by 0AE1 cm year )1 over the last centuries (Olff et al 1997), but in the second half of the 20th century this rate has increased to 0AE3 cm year )1 (Esselink et al 1998) and is expected to increase even further (potentially up to 1AE2 cm year )1 in 2100; van Dorland, Dubelaar-Versluis & Jansen 2009). The recent increase in SLR is mainly attributed to global warming causing seawater to expand (IPCC 2007), but some land subsidence due to post-glacial rebound and local gasextraction also occurs in this estuary (Marquenie & de Vlas 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

Pol

Ens

Heg

et al. 2010

Journal of Applied Ecology

132

125

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Summary1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed over time in Europe's largest estuary. Subsequently, we quantified how this has affected the flooding risk of six saltmarsh nesting bird species. 3. We show that maximum high tide has increased twice as fast as mean high tide over the past four decades (0AE8 vs. 0AE4 cm year )1 ), resulting in more frequent and more catastrophic flooding of nests, especially around the time when most eggs have just hatched. 4. Using data on species' nest elevations, on their timing of egg-laying and on the duration that their eggs and chicks are at risk from flooding, we show that flooding risks increased for all six studied species (even after accounting for compensatory land accretion) and this is expected to worsen in the near future if they do not adapt. Moreover, our study provides the first evidence that increasing flooding risks have reduced the reproductive output below stable population levels in at least one species, the Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus. 5. Sensitivity analyses show that currently birds would benefit most from adapting their nest-site selection to higher areas. However, historically the lower marsh has been favoured for its proximity to the feeding grounds and for its low vegetation aiding predator detection. 6. Synthesis and applications. We argue that it is more difficult for birds to infer that habitat quality has decreased from changes in the frequency of rare and unpredictable extreme events than from trends in climatic means. Consequently, at present the lower parts of the saltmarsh may function as an ecological trap. The creation of new (i.e. low) saltmarshes -currently a restoration prioritymay thus counteract the goal of increasing the avian biodiversity of an area. Management tools to mitigate the effects of climate change, either by making the higher saltmarsh more attractive (mowing, predator control) or by reducing the flooding risk of the lower marsh (building elevated plots), await to be tested.

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“…Vertical land movement is a result of subsidence and glacial rebounds. A local subsidence due to gas extraction has been observed in the study area (Marquenie and Vlas, 2005), and it is expected to be between 0 -0.1 m over the next 50 years (Van der Meij and Minemma, 1999). In the simulations undertaken herein, a land subsidence of 0.1 m in the next 50 years was specified, representing the worst case scenario.…”

Section: Rslr Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Along the Dutch Coast, compaction plays a major role in terms of changing the deep substratum of the sea floor or consolidation of tidal flats. Additionally, land subsidence due to gas extraction also affects the MSL in the study area (Marquenie and Vlas, 2005). Presently, one gas extraction site is in operation at the east of the Ameland barrier island.…”

Section: Relative Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise

Dissanayake¹

2011

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The impact of subsidence and sea level rise in the Wadden Sea: Prediction and field verification

Cited by 6 publications

References 3 publications

The morphological response of large tidal inlet/basin systems to relative sea level rise

The morphological response of large tidal inlet/basin systems to relative sea level rise

Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

Modelling Morphological Response of Large Tidal Inlet Systems to Sea Level Rise

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