The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian inuenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

Abstract

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division in Bangladesh. In particular we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing 1 made available for use under a CC0 license. not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also The copyright holder for this preprint (which was . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/193177 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Oct. 6, 2017; levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive active surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that should be applied in the event of a re-emergent outbreak of H5N1 amongst poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh.