The impact of the belt and road initiative on the Suez Canal cargo trade

Abstract

The Suez Canal (SC) serves as the shortest maritime transport route from east to west. In the absence of the SC, global trade and transportation costs would increase substantially, impeding the expansion potential of the global economy. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a key component of China's future international trading network, with significant implications for global seaborne trade. The BRI's two primary pillars are the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) and the Silk Road Economic Belt, both of which have significant infrastructural investments. The MSR connects China to various regions in Asia, Africa, and Europe via the SC, thereby serving as a significant maritime trade route on a global scale, particularly between Europe and China. This is due to the SC's distinctive positioning on the MSR. Consequently, studying the significance of BRI for the SC cargo trade is crucial. This study uses annual data from 1990 to 2022 to examine this dynamic relationship. To account for the interaction effect of the variables, we use the vector autoregressive model and the impulse response function. Model results show that China's seaborne trade will increase SC trade by 23%, and China's BRI investment projects are anticipated to have a 5% significant impact on SC cargo trade and will continue to grow in the medium and long run. According to these findings, the SC has to continue to adopt more flexible pricing and marketing strategies to encourage and attract more customers. As a result, the SC could become a global logistics center and transform from a trade gateway to a global hub if it develops more value-added activities in its adjacent areas and attracts substantial Chinese investments.