The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation

Thiel, Christian; Nijs, Wouter; Simões, Sofia; Schmidt, Johannes; Zyl, Arnold Van; Schmid, Erwin

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.043

Cited by 106 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Some of the EV opportunities are linked to Possible future bans of ICEVs in countries or cities bear significant upside potential for the future sales of EVs [36]. With the right policy mix, EVs can accelerate the decarbonization of the power sector [42]. EVs can facilitate the grid integration of higher variable renewable energy sources [32].…”

Section: How Can Electric Vehicles Become a Sustainable Success?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An EU carbon border tax could ensure a further reduction of emissions in the supply chain for EVs, including battery production. This tax would complement the emission trading scheme, designed to ensure that additional power demand from EVs is satisfied in a carbon neutral way [42]. The EU circular economy initiative aims at mitigating the effect of raw material constraints [51].…”

Section: How Can Electric Vehicles Become a Sustainable Success?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Will Electric Vehicles Be Killed (again) or Are They the Next Mobility Killer App?

2020

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Electric vehicles (EVs) have been around for more than a hundred years. Nevertheless, their deployment has not been a sustainable success up until now. Many scientists, engineers and policymakers argue that EVs are a promising, maybe even indispensable option to achieve ambitious decarbonization goals, if powered by electricity from renewable energy sources. At the moment, the EVs market is gaining a lot of momentum and we may be near the point of no return for a sustained mass market deployment of electric vehicles. Many papers exist that describe future prospects of EVs. In our commentary we try to provide a bigger picture view and look at market and societal aspects. We analyze why previous generations of EVs were not successful and how current electric vehicles could become a sustainable success. We perform a semi-quantitative Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis and find that current electric vehicle designs are technologically on par with or better than conventional alternatives. Car buyers go electric when the economics make sense to them. We conclude that incentives are needed for electric vehicles until battery costs lower—as much as to allow EVs to become cheaper—from a total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective, than other alternatives. Other policy measures are needed to overcome remaining barriers, especially in supporting the setup and operation of publicly accessible recharging points to overcome range anxiety. EVs in isolation may not be the next mobility killer app. The real next mobility killer app may emerge as an autonomous shared EV in a world where the border between public and private transport will cease to exist. The findings of our commentary are relevant for scientists, policymakers and industry.

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Section: How Can Electric Vehicles Become a Sustainable Success?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: How Can Electric Vehicles Become a Sustainable Success?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Will Electric Vehicles Be Killed (again) or Are They the Next Mobility Killer App?

2020

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“…All the factors mentioned in this paragraph require successful coordination and appropriate timeliness of decisions and construction works, in an aim to avoid market coordination failures, which are usual in such large endeavours.This paper aims to provide a quantitative analysis of the factors influencing electric vehicle penetration in the EU in 2030. Model-based analyses of this type often assess the impacts of individual barriers or policy instruments [28][29][30][31]. However, there is a lack of comparative impact assessments of all the barriers/factors that influence the market uptake of electro-mobility technology.The quantitative assessment uses a large set of scenarios-sensitivities (projection for the EU until 2030) performed using the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy economic model, developed by E3MLab.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…This paper aims to provide a quantitative analysis of the factors influencing electric vehicle penetration in the EU in 2030. Model-based analyses of this type often assess the impacts of individual barriers or policy instruments [28][29][30][31]. However, there is a lack of comparative impact assessments of all the barriers/factors that influence the market uptake of electro-mobility technology.…”

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confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment

et al. 2019

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The European Commission (EC) has set ambitious CO2 emission reduction objectives for the transport sector by 2050. In this context, most decarbonisation scenarios for transport foresee large market penetration of electric vehicles in 2030 and 2050. The emergence of electrified car mobility is, however, uncertain due to various barriers such as battery costs, range anxiety and dependence on battery recharging networks. Those barriers need to be addressed in the 2020–2030 decade, as this is key to achieving electrification at a large scale in the longer term. The paper explores the uncertainties prevailing in the first decade and the mix of policies to overcome the barriers by quantifying a series of sensitivity analysis scenarios of the evolution of the car markets in the EU Member States and the impacts of each barrier individually. The model used is PRIMES-TREMOVE, which has been developed by E3MLab and constitutes a detailed energy-economic model for the transport sector. Based on model results, the paper assesses the market, energy, emission and cost impacts of various CO2 car standards, infrastructure development plans with different geographic coverage and a range of battery cost reductions driven by learning and mass industrial production. The assessment draws on the comparison of 29 sensitivity scenarios for the EU, which show that removing the barriers in the decade 2020–2030 is important for electrification emergence. The results show that difficult policy dilemmas exist between adopting stringent standards and infrastructure of wide coverage to push technology and market development and adverse effects on costs, in case the high cost of batteries persists. However, if the pace of battery cost reductions is fast, a weak policy for standards and infrastructure is not cost-effective and sub-optimal. These policies are shown to have impacts on the competition between pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Drivers that facilitate electrification also favour the uptake of the former technology, the latter being a reasonable choice only in case the barriers persist and obstruct electrification.

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“…Modelling the transition of automobile technologies has long been a subject of research, from studies of car ownership in the early twentieth century [13,14] through the increased interest in vehicle choice from the late 1970s [15][16][17] and more recently the impact of zero tailpipe emission vehicles as part of emission reduction strategies [18,19]. However, the number of studies considering the industrial perspective is currently low in the English language (see [20][21][22]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Harrison

Vilchez

Thiel

2018

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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Purpose: In this study, we consider the European electro-mobility market from an industrial perspective, and focus on effects of market conditions and manufacturer strategies, with the objective to gain insight on what could inhibit the successful market penetration of electric powertrain vehicles. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We assess strategies employed by automobile manufacturers towards the development and market penetration of electric vehicles.Results: Impacts on electric powertrain sales shares (up to 2050) related to industrial strategies, represented by learning effect, marketing effort and R&D funding, are presented under different scenarios related to policy, regulation and market conditions. Conclusion:It is concluded from the results presented here that competition between electrical powertrain options may be more inhibitive than competition against conventional counterparts, with both monetary and non-monetary industry support for immature powertrains key to their long-term success when supportive policies are designed to be technology neutral.

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The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation

Cited by 106 publications

References 32 publications

Will Electric Vehicles Be Killed (again) or Are They the Next Mobility Killer App?

Will Electric Vehicles Be Killed (again) or Are They the Next Mobility Killer App?

Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

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