The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers

Abstract

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Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?

“…This outcome was made possible by increased U.S. shale oil production, which facilitated both import substitution and higher petroleum product exports (see Kilian 2017).…”

“…The oil states include North Dakota (84%), Alaska (40%), Wyoming (21%), New Mexico (14%), Texas (8%), Oklahoma (7%) and Montana (6%). 17 These states also include the most important shale oil plays in the country (see Kilian 2017). We then ask how different U.S. real GDP growth would have been, if these oil states had not been part of the U.S. economy.…”

“…The reason is that the U.S. shale oil revolution not only permitted U.S. refiners to curtail their oil imports, but it also allowed refiners to export refined products such as gasoline or diesel on a much larger scale than heretofore (see Kilian 2016Kilian , 2017. Although U.S. net petroleum imports over the last seven years have fallen from 240 billion to 102 billion chained 2009 dollars, the United States has remained a net petroleum importer.…”

Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?

“…Kilian (2017) examines the impact of the U.S. fracking boom and demonstrates that the U.S. shale oil production had played a role in the low crude oil price in 2016 based on Kilian and Murphy (2014). Using a variant of the Kilian (2009) model, however, we also address whether the low crude oil price is attributable to the U.S. shale production but allow structural breaks in the model.…”

Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities

“…Stratford 2013). They also play a central role in forecasting the prices of oil and other commodities (see, e.g., Baumeister and Kilian (2014a); Alquist and Coibion (2014)), in designing fiscal policies in commodity-exporting economies (see, e.g., Kilian 2017), in modeling the determinants of commodity prices (see, e.g., Kilian (2009a); Kilian and Murphy (2014); Khalil (2017); Stürmer 2 (2018)), in studying the effects of commodity price shocks on commodity-importing and exporting economies (see, e.g., Kilian (2009bKilian ( , 2017), in studying agricultural commodity markets (see, e.g., Baumeister and Kilian (2014b); Jacks and Stürmer (2016) ;Bruno, Büyüksahin, and Robe (2017)), and in studying financial market integration and the role of speculation (see, e.g., Kilian and Murphy (2014) ;Büyüksahin, and Robe (2014); ). In applied microeconomics, they have also been used in identifying the short-run price elasticity of supply in commodity markets (see Newell et al (2016)).…”