The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the development of ice on Lake Windermere

Abstract

Windermere, the largest lake in England, seldom freezes over but the sheltered bays are usually covered with ice for several days every year. Here I analyse the meteorological factors influencing the development of ice on the lake between 1933 and 2000 and relate these to the regional and global changes in the weather. The results demonstrate that the methods used to describe the development of ice at high latitudes can also be used to predict the formation of ice on this temperate lake. The best indicator of change was the number of ice-days recorded every winter. Regression analyses based on a Poisson model showed that there were significant negative correlations between the number of ice-days and the local air temperature, the Central England Temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). The relationship with the NAOI was particularly pronounced and explained 50% of the observed inter-annual variations. A hindcasting model based on the NAOI correctly predicted the most severe winters reported in the area between 1864 and 1910. The observed and predicted numbers of ice-days were also correlated with an index of sea ice in the Baltic. The results demonstrate that the number of ice-days reported on Windermere can be used as a proxy indicator of climate change and show that the NAO has had a major effect on the development of ice on this lake for at least a hundred and thirty years.

Historical Trends, Drivers, and Future Projections of Ice Phenology in Small North Temperate Lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region

“…We did not find any significant relationships between lake ice phenology and large-scale climate oscillations in our lakes between 1981/2 and 2014/5, although many previous studies have suggested the importance of climate oscillations on lake ice phenology and ice cover across the Northern Hemisphere [11][12][13]33,55]. However, our study is consistent with findings from Dickie Lake, south-central Ontario, for which NAO and ENSO did not explain significant variation in freeze up date [17].…”

Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on water temperature in southern Baltic coastal lakes

“…NAO affects thermal variables fairly strongly, particularly the air temperature (Rogers and van Loon, 1979;Hurrell and van Loon, 1997;Marshall et al, 2001) and ice conditions (Koslowski and Glaser, 1999;Omstedt and Chen, 2001;Jevrejeva, 2002;George, 2007). NAO affects a large part of the northern hemisphere from the eastern seaboard of the US to Siberia, and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic Ocean; the effects involve the entire troposphere, particularly in winter (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981;Marshall et al, 2001;Hurrell et al, 2003).…”

“…The NAO Index, as a measure of the intensity of advection of air masses from North Atlantic, is significantly correlated with ice conditions (Koslowski and Glaser, 1999;Maher et al, 2005;George, 2007). Koslowski and Glaser (1999) have demonstrated that heavy ice cover in the western Baltic accompanied the negative NAO phase which was exceptionally frequent during the "little ice age".…”

The Impact of Variations in the Climate on Seasonal Dynamics of Phytoplankton

“…In deep lakes there may, however, be some delay due to complete vernal turnover as described in a later section .. In Western Europe, where the lakes are either ice-free or only freeze for a few days inthe year (George, 2007), the most important winter effects are those associated with the year-to-year variations in the rainfall. In the English Lake District, showed that heavy winter rains tend to transport more dis-.…”