The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Indonesian Economy

Junaedi, Junaedi

doi:10.56209/jommerce.v2i2.29

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…According to the study's findings, Indonesian exports were significantly harmed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study is in line with research done by Permana (2022) which found that this war may diminish Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports and impede wheat imports, thereby raising the price of a variety of foodstuffs in the nation or, to put it another way, contributing to inflation.…”

Section: The Effect Of the Russia-ukrainian War On Exports In Indonesiasupporting

confidence: 90%

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and The Russia-Ukrainian War on Exports in Indonesia

Wahyudi

2022

JEP

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Indonesia is one of the countries that are active in international trade activities. This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables consisting of natural resources rent, foreign direct investment, and government spending on Indonesian exports. In addition to macroeconomic variables, this study examines the effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on Indonesian exports. This study uses time series data from 1991-2021. The method used in this research is Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The results of this study show that natural resource rents have a positive effect on exports. In contrast, foreign direct investment, government spending, and the Russia-Ukraine war negatively and significantly impact Indonesian exports from 1991-2021. Simultaneously, natural resource rents, foreign direct investment, government spending, and the Russia-Ukraine war substantially affect Indonesian exports. This paper examines how macroeconomic factors, particularly the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war on exports, affect Indonesian exports, which are currently quite restricted. As a result, this study helps to understand the variables that influence exports in Indonesia.

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Section: The Effect Of the Russia-ukrainian War On Exports In Indonesiasupporting

confidence: 90%

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and The Russia-Ukrainian War on Exports in Indonesia

Wahyudi

2022

JEP

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“…Kemudian, Mbah dan Wasum menerangkan bahwa rangkaian sanksi ekonomi yang diterapkan menyebabkan inflasi dan hambatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi global dan krisis energi beserta pangan (Mbah & Wasum, 2022). Hal tersebut juga mempengaruhi kondisi domestik Indonesia dimana terjadi kenaikan harga terhadap komoditas energi, dan juga berdampak pada adanya peningkatan beban subsidi negara (Junaedi, 2022).…”

Section: Dinda Tulus Tiara Syasya Yuania Fadila Mas'udiunclassified

Diplomasi Indonesia dalam Konflik Rusia - Ukraina: Sebuah Kajian Tentang Soft-Power

Tiara¹,

Mas’udi²

2023

JPI

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Konflik Rusia – Ukraina memberikan dampak negatif terhadap stabilitas global, sehingga memicu krisis di berbagai negara. Kondisi konflik yang belum mereda, membuat Indonesia berinisiatif melakukan misi perdamaian melalui Presiden Joko Widodo yang melakukan kunjungan ke Ukraina dan Rusia, untuk menjadi jembatan komunikasi kedua negara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan alasan mengapa Indonesia melakukan misi perdamaian terhadap konflik Rusia - Ukraina. Penelitian menggunakan metode eksplanatif kualitatif, dengan teknik pengumpulan data studi kepustakaan, serta teknik analisis kualitatif. Selain itu juga memakai Teori Soft Power, dan Konsep First Track Diplomacy. Hasil yang didapatkan yaitu Indonesia memakai instrumen diplomasi first track dalam misi perdamaian konflik Rusia – Ukraina, yang terlihat dari penggunaan dialog, negosiasi, dan kerja sama antar negara, sehingga membuka peluang perdamaian antar negara. Selain itu, dibalik misi perdamaian tersebut, Indonesia memiliki kepentingan ekonomi, membentuk citra positif, dan mempersiapkan untukmelancarkan agenda KTT G20 mendatang. Fenomena tersebut kemudian bersesuaian dengan tujuan dari Soft Power Indonesia yaitu untuk meningkatkan keamanan lingkungan eksternal dengan memproyeksikan citra negara yang damai dan menarik dengan menggunakan Soft Resource nya sebagai Tuan Rumah & Ketua Penyelenggaraan KTT G20. Studi ini mengembangkan studi sebelumnya, karena hasil yang didapatkan memperkaya kajian tentang perkembangan konflik rusia - ukarina terutama jika ditinjau dari segi soft power.

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“…The conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022 has an impact on the economic sectors over many countries (Balbaa et al, 2022). It led to the rise of prices in various commodities, which led to a corresponding rise in the inflation rate (Junaedi, 2022). Inflation is referred to as a gradual rise in the general price level of goods and services over a period of time (Islam, 2013).…”

Section: A Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ARIMA Time Series Modeling with the Addition of Intervention and Outlier Factors on Inflation Rate in Indonesia

Utami,

Huda,

Imro'ah

2024

JTAM

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Extreme events in a time series model can be detected when the precise timing of the event, known as the intervention, is known. When the exact timing of an event is unknown, it is referred to as an outlier. If these factors are neglected, the model's accuracy will be affected. To overcome this situation, it is possible to add the intervention or outlier factor into the time series model. This study proposes the combination of intervention and outlier analysis in time series models, especially ARIMA. It is intended to minimize the residuals and increase the accuracy of the model so that it is suitable for forecasting. Using the data of inflation rate in Indonesia, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was used as an intervention factor in this case. Pre-intervention data (before February 2022) is used to construct the ARIMA model (1st model). After that, the modeling process continued by adding the intervention factor to the ARIMA model. The effect caused by the intervention allows an outlier to appear, so the process is continued by adding the outlier factor, called an additive outlier, into the model before (2nd model). The MAPE for the first and second models is 7.96% and 7.57%, respectively. The finding of this research shows that the ARIMA model with intervention and outlier factors, named as the 2nd model, is the best model. This study shows that combining the intervention and outlier factors into ARIMA model can improve the accuracy. The forecasting of the inflation rate in Indonesia for one period ahead in 2023 is in the range of 2.06%.

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The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Indonesian Economy

Cited by 5 publications

References 19 publications

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and The Russia-Ukrainian War on Exports in Indonesia

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and The Russia-Ukrainian War on Exports in Indonesia

Diplomasi Indonesia dalam Konflik Rusia - Ukraina: Sebuah Kajian Tentang Soft-Power

ARIMA Time Series Modeling with the Addition of Intervention and Outlier Factors on Inflation Rate in Indonesia

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