The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> levels at a rural mid-latitude site

Abstract

Abstract. In spite of the strict EU regulations, concentrations of surface ozone and PM 10 often exceed the pollution standards for the Netherlands and Europe. Their concentrations are controlled by (precursor) emissions, social and economic developments and a complex combination of meteorological actors. This study tackles the latter, and provides insight in the meteorological processes that play a role in O 3 and PM 10 levels in rural mid-latitudes sites in the Netherlands. The relations between meteorological actors and air quality are studied on a local scale based on observations from four rural sites and are determined by a comprehensive correlation analysis and a multiple regression (MLR) analysis in 2 modes, with and without air quality variables as predictors. Furthermore, the objective Lamb Weather Type approach is used to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on air quality. Keeping in mind its future use in downscaling future climate scenarios for air quality purposes, special emphasis is given to an appropriate selection of the regressor variables readily available from operational meteorological forecasts or AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Models). The regression models perform satisfactory, especially for O 3 , with an R 2 of 57.0% and 25.0% for PM 10 . Including previous day air quality information increases significantly the models performance by 15% (O 3 ) and 18% (PM 10 ). The Lamb weather types show a seasonal distinct pattern for high (low) episodes of average O 3 and PM 10 concentrations, and these are clear related with the meteorology-air quality correlation analysis. Although using Correspondence to: M. Demuzere (matthias.demuzere@ees.kuleuven.be) a circulation type approach can provide important additional physical relations forward, our analysis reveals the circulation method is limited in terms of short-term air quality forecast for both O 3 and PM 10 (R 2 between 0.12 and 23%). In summary, it is concluded that the use of a regression model is more promising for short-term downscaling from climate scenarios than the use of a weather type classification approach.

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The influence of circulation weather patterns at different spatial scales on drought variability in the Iberian Peninsula

“…Classification procedures based on the determination of CWTs and their applications to environmental analysis have been used frequently in recent decades (e.g., Trigo and DaCamara, 2000;Demuzere et al, 2009;Ramos et al, 2011;Russo et al, 2014). The CWTs are able to capture the multivariate information given by an input dataset, e.g., time series of daily pressure fields, into a univariate time series of type membership, i.e., to a classification catalog .…”

Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson–Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe

“…occurrence (Kassomenos 2010) or air quality (Comrie 1992;Kallos et al 1993;Tang et al 2011;Demuzere et al 2009a;Russo et al 2014). A comprehensive discussion of the different methods and their applicability can be found in Huth et al 2016 and the references therein.…”