The impacts of climate change on surfing resources

Abstract

Surfing has increased in cultural, social, and economic importance through the last century and is now globally significant. Predicated on the natural phenomenon of ocean waves interacting with coasts, surfing’s future is threatened by Earth’s changing climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of physical processes, including swell generation, wave breaking, and coastal dynamics, relevant for the locations — surf breaks — where surfing occurs and the myriad mechanisms through which each can be affected by a changing climate. We propose an organizing framework for these impacts characterizing them based on their mode of action as direct versus indirect, as well as by their magnitude, and conclude that some impacts (such as sea level rise) may threaten some breaks but on more protracted timelines, whereas other impacts (such as coastal armoring implemented in response to climate change) may pose more immediate, existential threats. This framework underscores the importance of local environmental knowledge of a given surf break for understanding its susceptibility to climate change and informs a Surf Break Vulnerability–Climate Change Assessment Tool (SurfCAT), designed to enable improved wave stewardship by local resource managers and stakeholders in the face of a changing climate.