The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California

Underwood, Emma C.; Hollander, Allan D.; Safford, Hugh D.; Kim, John B.; Srivastava, L. S.; Drapek, Raymond J.

doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101008

Cited by 42 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The changing precipitation as a consequence of changing climatic conditions in the UHRB is the main determinant of the ESs supply, where the changing trend in precipitation directly shows the magnitude of the corresponding changing ESs. This has also been found in ecosystem service and climate-related research in southern California [2] and the Gandheswari watershed in eastern India [17]. More recently, scientists have projected decreasing precipitation in southern Europe, and the same outcome was shown in this study; however, precipitation will grow in most areas of northern Europe [59].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…Furthermore, the UHRB is in a highly forested river basin, and given the crucial role of forests in mitigation of changing climates, especially in carbon sequestration, climate adaptation strategies should be considered in forestry policies for ecological management [21]. Additionally, it is also imperative to incorporate climate-related policies into ecological environmental management and ecological reserve optimization policy initiatives, such as functional zonation and ecological red lines [2,73] since multiple ESs can be produced in protected areas [74]. Given the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem service inter-relationship, policies can be designed to optimize the synergies between SC and FM services for socio-economic benefits.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Natural ecosystems are being affected by changing climate conditions through changes in ecosystem processes and ecosystem functioning [1,2]. The projected changes in climate pose a growing threat to ecosystems and biodiversity, which is predicted to become more severe in the coming decade [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Zhang

O’Connor

et al. 2020

Water

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Climate change can have critical impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and their inter-relationships, especially for water-related services. However, there has been little work done on characterizing the current and future changes in these services and their inter-relationships under a changing climate. Based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the soil conservation service curve number model (SCS-CN), and the improved stochastic weather-generator-based statistical downscaled global climate models (GCMs), we examined two important water-related services, namely, the soil conservation (SC) service and the flood mitigation (FM) service, and their inter-relationship under baseline and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). We took the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), which is the core water source area of the China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S–NWDP), as an illustration. The findings revealed that (1) the SC and FM services will both decrease under the two climate scenarios examined; (2) the SC and FM services showed a significant synergistic inter-relationship and the synergy will be improved by 16.48% and 2.95% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, which provides an opportunity for management optimization; (3) the ecological degradation in the UHRB will likely have serious consequences for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang river basin, and therefore impact the actual economic benefits of the S–NWDP. This study points to the necessity for understanding the dynamic changes and inter-relationships of ecosystem services under future climate change and provides information regarding the consequences of climate change, which is useful for policy and infrastructure investment.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Zhang

O’Connor

et al. 2020

Water

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“…Process-based modelling approaches are generally preferred to assess climate change impacts and define decision-making strategies for adaptation in relation to fES (Runting et al 2017;Momblanch et al 2019a). Most modelling studies that assess adaptation interventions in the landscape (Bangash et al 2013;Dunford et al 2015;Fan et al 2016;Liu et al 2017;Mandle et al 2017;Huang et al 2019;Underwood et al 2019) with the intention to offset negative climate change impacts overlook river fES and their links to landscape services. This limits their capacity to support holistic solutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate

Momblanch

Beevers

Srinivasalu³

et al. 2020

Climatic Change

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Future climate change will likely impact the multiple freshwater ecosystem services (fES) provided by catchments through their landscapes and river systems. However, there is high spatio-temporal uncertainty on those impacts linked to climate change uncertainty and the natural and anthropogenic interdependencies of water management systems. This study identifies current and future spatial patterns of fES production in a highly managed water resource system in northern India to inform the design and assessment of plausible adaptation measures to enhance fES production in the catchment under uncertain climate change. A water resource systems modelling approach is used to evaluate fES across the full range of plausible future scenarios, to identify the (worst-case) climate change scenarios triggering the greatest impacts and assess the capacity of adaptation to enhance fES. Results indicate that the current and future states of the fES depend on the spatial patterns of climate change and the impacts of infrastructure management on river flows. Natural zones deliver more regulating and cultural services than anthropized areas, although they are more climate-sensitive. The implementation of a plausible adaptation strategy only manages to slightly enhance fES in the system with respect to no adaptation. These results demonstrate that water resource systems models are powerful tools to capture complex system dependencies and inform the design of robust catchment management measures. They also highlight that mitigation and more ambitious adaptation strategies are needed to offset climate change impacts in highly climate-sensitive catchments.

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“…It was concluded that in 2070-2099 (with RCP8.5), for southern California, water runoff (+ 127% to − 60%) 19 and carbon storage (+ 52% to − 31%) 19 were likely to be most significantly affected. Moreover, one-third of highbiodiversity areas were threatened by potential water deficits, and the annual costs of sediment removal were estimated to be around 172 million USD and carbon storage was estimated to be worth 7.5 billion USD (Underwood et al 2019). For a Mediterranean river basin, it was reported that the availability of drinking water was expected to decrease by 3-49% 20 , while total hydropower production would decrease by 5-43% 20 .…”

Section: Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying key processes and sectors in the interaction between climate and socio-economic systems: a review toward integrating Earth–human systems

Tachiiri

Matsumoto

2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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For the purpose of identifying the key processes and sectors involved in the interaction between Earth and socio-economic systems, we review existing studies on those processes/sectors through which the climate impacts socio-economic systems, which then in turn affect the climate. For each process/sector, we review the direct physical and ecological impacts and, if available, the impact on the economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on this review, land sector is identified as the process with the most significant impact on GHG emissions, while labor productivity has the largest impact on the gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, the energy sector, due to the increase in the demand for cooling, will have increased GHG emissions. Water resources, sea level rise, natural disasters, ecosystem services, and diseases also show the potential to have a significant influence on GHG emissions and GDP, although for most of these, a large effect was reported only by a limited number of studies. As a result, more studies are required to verify their influence in terms of feedbacks to the climate. In addition, although the economic damage arising from migration and conflict is uncertain, they should be treated as potentially damaging processes.

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The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California

Cited by 42 publications

References 49 publications

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate

Identifying key processes and sectors in the interaction between climate and socio-economic systems: a review toward integrating Earth–human systems

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