The Impacts of Global Warming on Climate Zone Changes Over Asia Based on CMIP6 Projections

Kim, Jeong‐Bae; Bae, Deg‐Hyo

doi:10.1029/2021ea001701

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Fingerprinting detection further confirm the dominant role of GHG in future precipitation changes, which collaborates with the previous studies (Kim & Bae, 2021; Kishore et al, 2022; Li et al, 2022). In particular, the S/N ratio of AA forcing is consistently greater than that of GHG forcing after the 2040s in AU, which reflects the fact that AA forcing has a much greater influence on changes in precipitation than GHG forcing (Allen & Ingram, 2002; Andrews et al, 2010; Wu et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Influence of anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation projected by the CMIP6–DAMIP models

Wang

Zhao

Hua

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Warming has already changed the patterns of precipitation and increased the risk of extreme climate events. An assessment of the influences from anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation is therefore essential to define appropriate mitigation and adaptation policies. We assess the effects of natural (NAT) and anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases [GHG] and anthropogenic aerosols [AA]) on precipitation over land areas simulated under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) SSP2‐4.5 scenario. Our results indicate that changes in precipitation due to GHG forcing, AA forcing and all external forcings (ALL) are projected to increase by about 3.0%–24.8%, 1.1%–6.9% and 4.2%–31.2%, respectively, across most land areas in the twenty‐first century, especially over the mid‐ and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and central Africa, with an increase in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs). By contrast, the NAT‐induced changes are relatively small, with a slight increase in the mean of the PDFs. The frequencies of both future extreme precipitation and dry events are projected to increase by 11%–101% and 3%–72%, respectively, over many continental regions under the influence of external forcings, especially under GHG forcing. Fingerprinting detection shows that the signals of GHG (except for Australia), AA and ALL forcing are detectable at the likely level (signal‐to‐noise ratio >0.95; 66% confidence) over most land areas. The GHG signals are stronger and detected earlier (after 2010s, likely level) than the AA signals (after 2060s, likely level).

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Influence of anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation projected by the CMIP6–DAMIP models

Wang

Zhao

Hua

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…First, the global mean surface temperature is averaged in a 20‐year running window. Then, the threshold year is determined when the global mean temperature reaches 1.5°C or 2.0°C relative to the pre‐industrial level (Kim & Bae, 2021; Tang et al., 2022; Zhao et al., 2021). Finally, a 20‐year period extending from 9 years prior and 10 years after the threshold year is as the future projection period at different warming levels and scenarios (Table 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Extreme Events in China Would Be Affected by Global Warming—Insights From a Bias‐Corrected CMIP6 Ensemble

et al. 2023

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The Paris Agreement adopted by 196 Parties at COP21 in 2015 set a global warming goal, which is to keep global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, relative to the pre-industrial period (IPCC, 2018). To achieve this goal, every participating country has proposed its emission reduction roadmap and made the corresponding policies. As the largest developing country and one of the most carbon emitters, China proposed its target in

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“…These are areas predominantly identified by temperature patterns and impact for example biodiversity, agricultural systems, public health and the energy sector (Mahlstein et al 2013, Porter et al 2014. In fact, thermal climate zones distribution determines the ecosystem of living species and the energy consumption from residential buildings (Bai et al 2019, Kim andBae 2021). As temperatures will continue to rise due to anthropogenic warming (IPCC 2021), changes in thermal climate zones will accelerate ecosystem…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected expansion of hottest climate zones over Africa during the mid and late 21st century

Dajuma

Sylla

Tall

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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Projected shifts in thermal climate zones over Africa during the mid and late 21st century are assessed by employing the Thornthwaite thermal classification applied to 40 CMIP6 GCMs under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 forcing scenarios. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean reproduces the observed pattern of thermal zones during the reference period, albeit with some discrepancies. The torrid climate conditions dominating over West Africa, the western Sahara Desert and part of East Africa, and the hot thermal type covering the northeastern Sahara Desert, Central Africa and western Madagascar are well captured. In addition, the warm climate zones found along the coastal regions of Mediterranean countries, Southern Africa and eastern Madagascar as well as the cool climate over southern South African regions are well replicated. The projections reveal a gradual expansion of the hottest thermal type consisting of a northward and southward displacement of torrid climate zones, with this effect intensifying as greenhouse gas forcing increases and the time horizon moves from the mid to the end of the century. In the mid 21stcentury, torrid climates expand by up to ~ 15%, 20% and 27% of total Africa's land areas for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, with these fractions increasing to ~16%, 28% and 42% in the late 21st century. Therefore, at the end of the 21st century for the high end greenhouse gas concentration scenario the African continent will be covered by 81%-87% of torrid climate type, which will have enormous impacts on the sustainable development of African countries.

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The Impacts of Global Warming on Climate Zone Changes Over Asia Based on CMIP6 Projections

Cited by 21 publications

References 45 publications

Influence of anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation projected by the CMIP6–DAMIP models

Influence of anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation projected by the CMIP6–DAMIP models

How Extreme Events in China Would Be Affected by Global Warming—Insights From a Bias‐Corrected CMIP6 Ensemble

Projected expansion of hottest climate zones over Africa during the mid and late 21st century

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