The Implications of Apportionment on Quality Candidate Emergence and Electoral Competition

Abstract

The U.S. apportions congressional districts both across states and within states based upon population. Scholars have long focused on the electoral implications of redistricting within states, but there has been less consideration of the electoral implications of apportionment across states. In this paper, I analyze congressional elections from 2002 to 2014 and theorize that the limited number of political opportunities in states with few congressional districts will lead to higher levels of quality candidate emergence and electoral competition in these states. I find support for this theory; specifically, as the number of political opportunities in a state increases, the number of quality candidates running for office decreases.

Party does not matter: Unified government and midterm elections

“…This indirect effect is greater for economic performance because it is less volatile than presidential approval. Several studies have found candidate quality helps explain U.S. legislative election outcomes (Ban, Llaudet, and Snyder 2016; Carson, Engstrom, and Roberts 2007; Carson and Sievert 2017; Gaddie, Bullock, and Buchanan 1999; Geras 2018).…”