There have been prominent and widespread calls for high school science students to work with data in more complex ways that better align with and support the work of professional scientists and engineers (Lee & Wilkerson, 2018; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2019). This is part of the broader practice shift in science education research and standards and more data-intensive areas of study and work—and explorations of the roles of data science at the K-12 levels (Jiang et al., 2022; Wilkerson & Polman, 2020). Although teachers express the desire to do more with data in their science classrooms (Banilower et al., 2018; Rosenberg et al., 2022b), science teachers do not presently have a way to connect the work their students do with data to the science ideas they are working to help their students understand. The result is that students' work with data can be isolated from the sense-making students are doing about science. There is a need and an opportunity to provide science teachers with practical tools that are grounded in the framework of Bayesian data analytic methods that explicitly connect and weigh between initial ideas and empirical evidence. The specific opportunity for using Bayesian methods involves recent advances in informal statistical inference. This type of statistical inference considers how students not only interpret but also how they model data and make probabilistic generalizations from data. This opportunity is bolstered by current emphases on students’ investigations of phenomena as a locus of activity in science classrooms. This project advances middle and high school students' data modeling in ecological contexts by taking a Bayesian approach that is supported and studied as an informal statistical inference framework. It is instantiated through a unit, digital tool, and teacher professional development program for 15 middle grades and 15 high school educators that will be conducted in a way that emphasizes students' data analyses with phenomena of interest that relate to local context for teachers and students. Accordingly, the professional development program will begin with a two-day weekend program at the Great Smoky Mountains Institute at Tremont. A field experiment will compare the students' informal statistical inference capabilities by using qualitative analyses of written embedded assessments of students' probabilistic generalization from empirical data, and changes in the teachers’ confidence engaging their students will be assessed using validated surveys.