The importance of including phenology when modelling species ecological niche

Abstract

Species distribution models have grown in complexity by incorporating fine-scale variables, including data on microclimate, physiology and species interactions. Recent studies have acknowledged the importance of the spatial scale by including higher resolution maps and more complex climatic variables. However, models rarely consider the consequences of including data related to time. Indeed, species phenology -and potential shifts in phenology due, for example, to climate change -is potentially one of the most neglected aspects of ecological modelling. We present a literature review of relevant phenological aspects at different temporal scales and across several taxa. Such elements should be considered to define better the environmental niche and project present, future and past distribution models. We considered the available studies on plants, insects, reptiles, birds and mammals to evaluate how they dealt with the phenology of the investigated species, as well as the phenology of other resources and interacting species, to infer present, past and future projections. Here we focus on four main phenological aspects that, if not considered, may easily bias any projection, namely: 1) phenology can be accompanied by a shift in distribution within the year (e.g. migratory species); 2) activity may be restricted to a portion of the year (e.g. most ectotherms from temperate climates); 3) survival and reproduction success may depend on the synchrony with other species phenology (e.g. plants-pollinators interactions); 4) changes in climatic conditions can lead to shifts in phenology (e.g. anticipated or delayed blooms or changes in migration timing). In this review, we show how neglecting such factors may quickly lead to project a biased distribution. Finally, we provide a guide on evaluating whether the case study may be affected by such factors and what actions may improve the models.

Morphological overdispersion supports the role of competition in the community assembly of dragonflies: drivers and spatio-seasonal variation

“…A similar pattern was found in Catalonia (Spain) where early and late season bee species had large body sizes, which was suggested to allow them to deal with cold temperatures (Osorio-Canadas et al 2016). These results provide mechanistic understanding on the processes shaping the phenological variation of insect diversity and highlight that phenological patterns cannot be neglected if we aim for a comprehensive understanding of natural systems (Ramirez et al 2015;Ponti & Sannolo 2022).…”

“…Besides spatial patterns of community assembly, many insect groups show particular replacement of species over the season or phenological patterns (Wolda 1988) which are the result of complex and poorly understood mechanisms. The phenological dimension of diversity is, in fact, often neglected (Forrest & Miller-Rushing 2010;Ramirez et al 2015;Ponti & Sannolo 2022) despite its importance in understanding the distribution of biological phenomena (Woods et al 2022). The Odonata (with suborders dragonflies: Anisoptera, and damselflies: Zygoptera) are an insect order with rich natural history record that may be uniquely useful for understanding animal competitive interactions.…”

Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas

“…In reality, drivers of range dynamics in large herbivores are complex and unlikely to relate directly to climatological variability. Instead, indirect effects of climate such as forage distribution and phenology, distribution of competitors and natural enemies, and frequency and severity of extreme weather events are likely to play important roles in changes in species distributions related to climate change (Creel et al, 2005 ; Parmesan et al, 2000 ; Ponti & Sannolo, 2022 ; Winnie et al, 2008 ). Historical relationships among humans and megafauna may drive patterns in species distribution, particularly if species are refugees from human exploitation (Cromsigt et al, 2012 ).…”

Seasonal models reveal niche changes during invasion in Capsella bursa-pastoris

“…Many annual plants time their lifecycle to correspond to specific seasons, so constructing niches that account for seasonal time has the potential to improve our ability to describe where and when a species will occur and detect changes in niche shifts during invasion (Hereford et al, 2017; Ponti and Sannolo, 2022). Seasonal niches are related to phenological niches, which describe where and when specific life stages occur (Grubb, 1977; Hutchinson, 1991; Wolkovich and Cleland, 2014).…”