The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

Gozzi, Nicolò; Bajardi, Paolo; Perra, Nicola

doi:10.1101/2021.01.09.21249480

Cited by 27 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…However, both ours and Gozzi et al [42] qualitative findings are in agreement between themselves and are consistent with the results of the earlier studies that have shown that factors that contribute to drastic increase of contact rates (such as vaccination-related behavioral change or premature reduction/removal of non-pharmaceutical interventions) may reduce the benefits of a vaccination programme [43,44,45,46].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…In their recent work Gozzi et al [42] also have considered the impact of the feedback between the epidemic dynamics, the vaccination rollout and compliance to physical distancing on infection transmission dynamics. The authors modeled compliant behavior modifications only as pertinent to the susceptible/vaccinated population, which may have resulted in more optimistic predictions for a disease like COVID-19 whose hallmark is asymptomatic spread.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

Teslya

Rozhnova

Pham

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Mass vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 are under way in many countries with the hope that increasing vaccination coverage will enable reducing current physical distancing measures. Compliance with these measures is waning, while more transmissible virus variants such as B.1.1.7 have emerged. Using SARS-CoV-2 transmission model we investigated the impact of the feedback between compliance, the incidence of infection, and vaccination coverage on the success of a vaccination programme in the population where waning of compliance depends on vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that the combination of fast waning compliance, slow vaccination rates, and more transmissible variants may result in a higher cumulative number of infections than in a situation without vaccination. These adverse effects can be alleviated if vaccinated individuals do not revert to pre-pandemic contact rates, and if non-vaccinated individuals remain compliant with physical distancing measures. Both require convincing, clear and appropriately targeted communication strategies by public health authorities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

Teslya

Rozhnova

Pham

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Robust evidence now shows that, under most conditions, early adoption of stringent NPIs is associated with a reduction in transmission [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. However, with full vaccination still elusive, and with the possibility of vaccine-escaping variants emerging, NPIs can be expected to continue playing a significant role in managing the pandemic in the foreseeable future [28][29][30][31]. A critical question is therefore whether we can expect NPIs to continue working as the pandemic stretches into longer time frames.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

et al. 2021

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We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0–100). Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P < 0.001, 95% CI = [5%, 7%]) lower average daily deaths. In the first wave, in countries that ultimately experiences 3 waves of the pandemic to date, ten additional points on the SI resulted in lower average daily deaths by 21 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [8%, 16%]). This effect was sustained in the third wave with reductions in deaths of 28 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [13%, 21%]). Moreover, interaction effects show that government policies were effective in reducing deaths in all waves in all groups of countries. These findings highlight the enduring importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 over time.

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“…While there are now several highly efficacious vaccines to prevent severe disease 12 , 13 , and possibly infection 14 , 15 , from SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), widespread vaccination will take months to years 16 , 17 and will likely need to be coupled with effective non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) 18 . For countries rolling out vaccines, easing NPIs too early could jeopardize success 18 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

Caldwell¹,

Lara-Tuprio²,

Teng³

et al. 2021

The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific

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Background: COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socioeconomics, surveillance, and policy responses. Here, we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines, a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak. Methods:We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal protective behaviors (through a "Minimum Health Standards" policy, MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region). We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological parameters, and interventions.Findings: Population age structure, contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. The model indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 13-27%. The February 2021 case detection rate was estimated at ~8%, population recovered at ~9%, and scenario projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence.Interpretation: COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, mobility, and MHS adherence. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS should help the Philippines control the epidemic until vaccines are widely distributed, but disease resurgence may be occurring due to a combination of low population immunity and detection rates and new variants of concern.

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The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

Cited by 27 publications

References 104 publications

The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

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