Objective: To derive a simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery Design: Retrospective analysis of data collected from the ACTA National Audit; for the derivation dataset, we included data from 20,036 patients, which we then externally validated using a further group of 1,047 patients.
Methods:We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to aninteger-based system and tested it using AUC characteristic statistic. A Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was applied. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score.Results: Several factors were shown to be independently associated with risk of transfusion.These included age, gender, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed the accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients.
Conclusion:The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting the risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This score will allow clinicians to easily identify patients at increased risk for transfusion and apply patient blood management strategies appropriately, with the potential to reduce perioperative morbidity and mortality.