The Incidence of A2/Hong Kong Infections in Blood Donors During the Winter of 1970

Pw, Gill; Murphy, Anne-Marie

doi:10.5694/j.1326-5377.1972.tb47264.x

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The timing of occurrence in different countries also varies. The first wave of infections with A/England/42/72 (H3N2)-related viruses peaked in Singapore in July 1972; while infections peaked about the same time in Australia in August 1972, excess mortality was not markedly high [21] . In the Northern hemisphere winter of 1972 to 1973, relatively severe epidemics of A/England/42/72 (H3N2) were noted on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean [6] , [22] .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influenza Excess Mortality from 1950–2000 in Tropical Singapore

et al. 2009

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IntroductionTropical regions have been shown to exhibit different influenza seasonal patterns compared to their temperate counterparts. However, there is little information about the burden of annual tropical influenza epidemics across time, and the relationship between tropical influenza epidemics compared with other regions.MethodsData on monthly national mortality and population was obtained from 1947 to 2003 in Singapore. To determine excess mortality for each month, we used a moving average analysis for each month from 1950 to 2000. From 1972, influenza viral surveillance data was available. Before 1972, information was obtained from serial annual government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and press articles.ResultsThe influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968 resulted in substantial mortality. In addition, there were 20 other time points with significant excess mortality. Of the 12 periods with significant excess mortality post-1972, only one point (1988) did not correspond to a recorded influenza activity. For the 8 periods with significant excess mortality periods before 1972 excluding the pandemic years, 2 years (1951 and 1953) had newspaper reports of increased pneumonia deaths. Excess mortality could be observed in almost all periods with recorded influenza outbreaks but did not always exceed the 95% confidence limits of the baseline mortality rate.ConclusionInfluenza epidemics were the likely cause of most excess mortality periods in post-war tropical Singapore, although not every epidemic resulted in high mortality. It is therefore important to have good influenza surveillance systems in place to detect influenza activity.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influenza Excess Mortality from 1950–2000 in Tropical Singapore

et al. 2009

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“…One of our assumptions was that infection during the first wave conferred immunity during the second. This was based on the facts that 1) the proportion of persons who were seropositive to the prototype Hong Kong virus isolated during the first wave increased between the 2 waves ( 2 – 5 , 46 ); 2) hemagglutinin did not evolve significantly between the 2 waves ( 47 , 48 ); and 3) in 1 study, no person with a ≥4-fold rise in hemagglutination-inhibiting antibody titer during the first wave showed evidence of infection during the second ( 3 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We identified 25 suitable serologic data sets (17 for the first wave, 8 for the second ( 2 – 5 , 22 – 31 )). The definition of infection varied ( Tables 1 and 2 ) but was frequently either a hemagglutination-inhibiting antibody titer of ≥1:10 or a ≥4-fold increase in hemagglutination-inhibiting antibody titer.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves

Jackson¹,

Vynnycky²,

Mangtani³

2009

American Journal of Epidemiology

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The transmissibility of the strain of influenza virus which caused the 1968 influenza pandemic is poorly understood. Increases in outbreak size between the first and second waves suggest that it may even have increased between successive waves. The authors estimated basic and effective reproduction numbers for both waves of the 1968 influenza pandemic. Epidemic curves and overall attack rates for the 1968 pandemic, based on clinical and serologic data, were retrieved from published literature. The basic and effective reproduction numbers were estimated from 46 and 17 data sets for the first and second waves, respectively, based on the growth rate and/or final size of the epidemic. Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) were in the range of 1.06–2.06 for the first wave and, assuming cross-protection, 1.21–3.58 in the second. Within each wave, there was little geographic variation in transmissibility. In the 10 settings for which data were available for both waves, R0 was estimated to be higher during the second wave than during the first. This might partly explain the larger outbreaks in the second wave as compared with the first. This potential for change in viral behavior may have consequences for future pandemic mitigation strategies.

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Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

Sessions,

Bobrowski,

Martin

et al. 2023

FEMS Microbiology Reviews

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Understanding the origins of past and present viral epidemics is critical in preparing for future outbreaks. Many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have led to significant consequences not only due to their virulence, but also because we were unprepared for their emergence. We need to learn from large amounts of data accumulated from well-studied, past pandemics and employ modern informatics and therapeutic development technologies to forecast future pandemics and help minimize their potential impacts. While acknowledging the complexity and difficulties associated with establishing reliable outbreak predictions, herein we provide a perspective on the regions of the world that are most likely to be impacted by future outbreaks. We specifically focus on viruses with epidemic potential, namely SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, DENV, ZIKV, MAYV, LASV, noroviruses, influenza, Nipah virus, hantaviruses, Oropouche virus, MARV, and Ebola virus, which all require attention from both the public and scientific community to avoid societal catastrophes like COVID-19. Based on our literature review, data analysis, and outbreak simulations, we posit that these future viral epidemics are unavoidable, but that their societal impacts can be minimized by strategic investment into basic virology research, epidemiological studies of neglected viral diseases, and antiviral drug discovery.

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The Incidence of A2/Hong Kong Infections in Blood Donors During the Winter of 1970

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Influenza Excess Mortality from 1950–2000 in Tropical Singapore

Influenza Excess Mortality from 1950–2000 in Tropical Singapore

Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves

Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

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